KSLC / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 13:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

48%

32%

28%

23%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.5¢Risks 51.50u

ICONNO 48.5¢Risks 48.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.50u · ICON −48.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:52+00:00	60.5%	57.6%	29.4%	50.0%	81.2%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	60.5%	57.6%	29.4%	50.0%	81.2%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	60.5%	57.6%	32.9%	50.0%	81.2%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	60.5%	57.6%	32.9%	50.0%	81.2%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	60.5%	57.6%	32.9%	50.0%	81.2%
2026-10-12T07:48:55+00:00	62.8%	57.6%	32.9%	61.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	62.8%	57.6%	32.9%	61.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	62.8%	57.6%	32.9%	61.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	62.8%	57.6%	32.9%	61.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	62.8%	57.6%	32.9%	61.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	62.8%	57.6%	34.3%	61.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	62.8%	53.2%	34.3%	61.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	62.8%	53.2%	34.3%	61.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	62.8%	53.2%	34.3%	61.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	62.8%	53.2%	34.4%	61.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T15:27:43+00:00	62.8%	53.2%	34.4%	61.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	62.8%	47.8%	34.4%	61.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	62.8%	47.8%	34.4%	61.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	62.8%	47.8%	29.6%	61.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	62.8%	47.8%	29.6%	61.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	62.8%	47.8%	29.6%	61.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00	71.4%	47.8%	29.6%	57.1%	50.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	71.4%	47.8%	29.6%	57.1%	50.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	71.4%	47.8%	29.6%	57.1%	50.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	71.4%	47.8%	29.6%	57.1%	50.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	71.4%	47.8%	34.4%	57.1%	50.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	71.4%	47.8%	34.4%	57.1%	50.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	71.4%	47.8%	34.4%	57.1%	50.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	71.4%	47.8%	34.4%	57.1%	50.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	70.6%	47.8%	34.4%	57.1%	50.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	70.6%	47.8%	34.4%	57.1%	50.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	70.6%	47.8%	34.4%	57.1%	50.8%
2026-10-13T04:16:19+00:00	70.6%	47.8%	34.4%	57.1%	50.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	70.6%	47.8%	34.4%	57.1%	50.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	70.6%	47.8%	32.4%	57.1%	50.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	70.6%	47.8%	32.4%	57.1%	50.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	70.6%	47.8%	32.4%	57.1%	50.8%
2026-10-13T08:04:10+00:00	72.7%	47.8%	32.4%	56.2%	23.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	72.7%	47.8%	32.4%	56.2%	23.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	72.7%	47.8%	32.4%	56.2%	23.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	72.7%	47.8%	32.4%	56.2%	23.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	72.7%	47.8%	32.4%	56.2%	23.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	72.7%	53.5%	29.7%	56.2%	23.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	72.7%	53.5%	29.7%	56.2%	23.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	72.7%	53.5%	29.7%	56.2%	23.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	74.3%	53.5%	29.7%	56.2%	23.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	74.3%	53.5%	29.7%	56.2%	23.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	74.3%	43.0%	29.7%	56.2%	23.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	74.3%	43.0%	29.7%	56.2%	23.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	74.3%	43.0%	32.8%	56.2%	23.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	74.3%	43.0%	32.8%	56.2%	23.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	74.3%	43.0%	32.8%	56.2%	23.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	74.3%	43.0%	32.8%	56.2%	23.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	75.0%	43.0%	32.8%	56.2%	31.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	75.0%	43.0%	32.8%	56.2%	31.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	75.0%	43.0%	32.8%	56.2%	31.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	75.0%	43.0%	32.8%	56.2%	31.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	75.0%	43.0%	33.9%	57.1%	31.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	75.0%	43.0%	33.9%	57.1%	31.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	75.0%	43.0%	33.9%	57.1%	31.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	75.0%	43.0%	33.9%	57.1%	31.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	75.0%	43.0%	33.9%	57.1%	31.6%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	75.0%	43.0%	33.9%	57.1%	31.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:39+00:00	75.0%	43.0%	33.9%	57.1%	31.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	75.0%	43.0%	33.9%	57.1%	31.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	75.0%	43.0%	33.9%	57.1%	31.6%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	75.0%	43.0%	33.9%	57.1%	31.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	75.0%	43.0%	33.9%	57.1%	31.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	73.8%	43.0%	33.9%	57.1%	18.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	73.8%	43.0%	33.9%	57.1%	18.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	73.8%	43.0%	33.9%	57.1%	18.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00	73.8%	43.0%	33.9%	57.1%	18.3%
2026-10-14T10:34:24+00:00	73.8%	43.0%	33.9%	48.1%	18.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:59+00:00	73.8%	40.7%	30.3%	48.1%	18.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	73.8%	40.7%	30.3%	48.1%	18.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	73.8%	40.7%	30.3%	48.1%	18.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	73.8%	40.7%	30.3%	48.1%	18.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	73.8%	40.7%	30.3%	48.1%	18.3%
2026-10-15T04:48:05+00:00	75.4%	31.8%	31.4%	51.0%	20.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	75.4%	31.8%	36.1%	51.0%	20.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	75.4%	31.8%	36.1%	51.0%	20.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	75.4%	31.8%	36.1%	51.0%	20.6%
2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00	75.2%	31.8%	36.1%	52.1%	17.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	75.2%	31.8%	36.1%	52.1%	17.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	75.2%	31.8%	36.1%	52.1%	17.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	75.2%	31.8%	36.1%	52.1%	17.4%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	75.2%	31.8%	36.1%	52.1%	17.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00	75.2%	31.8%	28.0%	52.1%	17.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	75.2%	34.8%	28.0%	52.1%	17.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	75.2%	34.8%	28.0%	52.1%	17.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	73.6%	34.8%	28.0%	52.1%	17.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	73.6%	35.0%	26.8%	52.1%	16.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	73.6%	33.6%	26.8%	52.1%	16.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:12+00:00	73.6%	33.6%	26.8%	52.1%	16.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	73.6%	33.6%	19.5%	52.1%	16.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	73.6%	33.6%	19.5%	52.1%	16.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	73.6%	33.6%	19.5%	52.1%	16.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	73.6%	33.6%	19.5%	52.1%	16.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	75.2%	33.6%	19.5%	47.9%	17.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	75.2%	33.6%	19.5%	47.9%	17.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	75.2%	33.6%	19.5%	47.9%	17.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	75.2%	33.6%	19.5%	47.9%	17.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	75.2%	33.6%	16.8%	47.9%	17.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	75.2%	33.6%	16.8%	47.9%	17.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	75.2%	33.6%	16.8%	47.9%	17.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	76.0%	33.6%	16.8%	47.9%	17.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	76.0%	33.6%	16.8%	47.9%	17.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	76.0%	33.6%	16.8%	47.9%	17.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	76.0%	33.6%	16.8%	47.9%	17.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:54+00:00	76.0%	33.6%	16.8%	47.9%	17.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	76.0%	33.6%	31.5%	47.9%	17.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	76.0%	33.6%	31.5%	47.9%	17.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	76.0%	33.6%	31.5%	47.9%	17.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	76.0%	33.6%	31.5%	47.9%	17.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	80.2%	33.6%	31.5%	47.9%	22.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	80.2%	33.6%	31.5%	47.9%	22.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	80.2%	33.6%	31.5%	47.9%	22.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	80.2%	33.6%	31.5%	47.9%	22.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	80.2%	31.8%	27.7%	47.9%	22.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	80.2%	31.8%	27.7%	47.9%	22.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	80.2%	31.8%	27.7%	47.9%	22.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	80.2%	31.8%	27.7%	47.9%	22.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	68.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0392
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1681
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1697
IFS HRES	48%	65.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.2714
IFS Ensemble	32%	63.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4651
WeatherNext 2	28%	64.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5227
ICON	23%	62.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5960

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261016-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗