KSLC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

17%

16%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.3¢Risks 6.15u

EPSNO 87.7¢Risks 43.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +43.85u · EPS −43.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	24.4%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	12.0%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	28.8%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	11.2%	26.9%	0.0%	—	4.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	11.3%	13.6%	8.2%	—	6.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	4.4%	11.4%	9.0%	—	4.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	0.4%	12.3%	4.1%	—	3.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.3%	11.2%	4.3%	—	3.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.0%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.2%	5.9%	0.9%	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.1%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.1%	7.6%	1.2%	—	0.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.3%	10.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.1%	7.9%	1.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.1%	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.2%	6.1%	1.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.3%	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.3%	4.5%	0.7%	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.4%	3.8%	0.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	1.8%	1.8%	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	2.9%	0.6%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	3.0%	1.6%	0.0%	0.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	3.5%	0.5%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	1.9%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.8%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	22%	70.1°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	69.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	70.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	69.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	67.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261018-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗