KSLC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

17%

16%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.3¢Risks 6.15u

EPSNO 87.7¢Risks 43.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +43.85u · EPS −43.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:33+00:00	19.0%	9.2%	18.8%	18.0%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	19.0%	9.2%	18.8%	18.0%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	19.0%	9.2%	18.8%	18.0%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	19.0%	9.2%	18.8%	18.0%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:14+00:00	19.0%	9.2%	18.8%	18.0%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00	19.0%	4.4%	15.0%	18.0%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	19.0%	4.4%	15.0%	18.0%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	19.0%	4.4%	15.0%	18.0%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:54+00:00	19.9%	4.4%	15.0%	18.0%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	20.0%	4.4%	15.1%	18.0%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:05+00:00	20.0%	4.3%	15.1%	18.0%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00	20.0%	4.3%	15.1%	18.0%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	20.0%	4.3%	15.1%	18.0%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	20.0%	4.3%	11.6%	18.0%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	20.0%	4.3%	11.6%	18.0%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	20.0%	4.3%	11.6%	18.0%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	17.6%	4.3%	11.6%	4.9%	40.4%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	17.6%	4.3%	11.6%	4.9%	40.4%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	17.6%	4.3%	11.6%	4.9%	40.4%
2026-10-11T21:59:01+00:00	17.6%	4.3%	11.6%	4.9%	40.4%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	17.6%	4.3%	11.6%	4.9%	40.4%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	17.6%	4.3%	6.7%	4.9%	40.4%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	17.6%	4.3%	6.7%	4.9%	40.4%
2026-10-12T01:00:15+00:00	17.6%	4.3%	6.7%	4.9%	40.4%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	18.1%	4.3%	6.7%	4.9%	40.4%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	18.1%	4.3%	6.7%	4.9%	40.4%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	18.1%	4.3%	6.7%	4.9%	40.4%
2026-10-12T04:01:53+00:00	18.1%	4.3%	6.7%	4.9%	40.4%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	18.1%	4.3%	6.7%	4.9%	40.4%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	18.1%	4.3%	10.5%	4.9%	40.4%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	18.1%	4.3%	10.5%	4.9%	40.4%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	18.1%	4.3%	10.5%	4.9%	40.4%
2026-10-12T07:48:55+00:00	15.4%	4.3%	10.5%	20.1%	32.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	15.4%	4.3%	10.5%	20.1%	32.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	15.4%	4.3%	10.5%	20.1%	32.9%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	15.4%	4.3%	10.5%	20.1%	32.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	15.4%	4.3%	10.5%	20.1%	32.9%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	15.4%	4.3%	8.0%	20.1%	32.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	15.4%	2.8%	8.0%	20.1%	32.9%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	15.4%	2.8%	8.0%	20.1%	32.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	18.3%	2.8%	8.0%	20.1%	32.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	18.3%	3.0%	8.1%	20.1%	32.9%
2026-10-12T15:27:43+00:00	18.3%	3.0%	8.1%	20.1%	32.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	18.3%	2.7%	8.1%	20.1%	32.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	18.3%	2.5%	8.1%	20.1%	32.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	18.3%	2.5%	6.0%	20.1%	32.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	18.3%	2.5%	6.0%	20.1%	32.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	18.3%	2.5%	6.0%	20.1%	32.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00	14.6%	2.5%	6.0%	16.8%	22.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	14.6%	2.5%	6.0%	16.8%	22.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	14.6%	2.5%	6.0%	16.8%	22.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	14.6%	2.5%	6.0%	16.8%	22.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	14.6%	2.5%	8.7%	16.8%	22.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	14.6%	2.5%	8.7%	16.8%	22.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	14.6%	2.5%	8.7%	16.8%	22.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	14.6%	2.5%	8.7%	16.8%	22.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	8.7%	16.8%	22.1%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	8.7%	16.8%	22.1%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	8.7%	16.8%	22.1%
2026-10-13T04:16:19+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	8.7%	16.8%	22.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	8.7%	16.8%	22.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	9.8%	16.8%	22.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	9.8%	16.8%	22.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	15.9%	2.5%	9.8%	16.8%	22.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	22%	70.1°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	69.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	70.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	69.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	67.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261018-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗