KSLC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

58%

44%

39%

37%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.8¢Risks 53.75u

ICONNO 46.2¢Risks 46.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.25u · ICON −46.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	89.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	92.4%	—	43.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	91.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	90.1%	—	63.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	19.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	8.8%	9.6%	—	54.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	20.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	31.7%	13.4%	15.8%	59.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	47.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	95.8%	99.3%	60.8%	75.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	95.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	96.1%	34.4%	57.6%	73.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	93.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	98.1%	99.8%	99.3%	97.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	99.8%	—	95.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	89.9%	99.9%	99.9%	82.2%	97.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	95.1%	99.7%	—	98.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	99.8%	99.9%	90.3%	95.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	99.9%	100.0%	—	97.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	100.0%	99.6%	99.6%	93.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	100.0%	99.9%	98.7%	98.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	99.9%	99.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	63.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	62.6°F	10.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	61.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	59.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	58.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	37%	57.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261022-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 61°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗