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KSLC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
71%
EPS
58%
WN2
44%
HRES
39%
ICON
37%
Consensus
51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 53.8¢Risks 53.75u
VS
ICONNO 46.2¢Risks 46.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.25u · ICON −46.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 70.9% · 2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00AIFS Single: 70.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00AIFS Single: 70.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00AIFS Single: 70.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00AIFS Single: 70.9% · 2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.8% · 2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.8% · 2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00IFS HRES: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00IFS HRES: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS HRES: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00IFS HRES: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00IFS HRES: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00ICON: 36.6% · 2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00ICON: 36.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00ICON: 36.6% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00ICON: 36.6% · 2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00ICON: 36.6% · 2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:0010-15 07:5010-15 09:2110-15 10:53
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:0070.9%57.8%44.1%38.8%36.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:0070.9%57.8%44.1%38.8%36.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:0070.9%57.8%44.1%38.8%36.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:0070.9%57.8%44.1%38.8%36.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:0070.9%57.8%44.1%38.8%36.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single71%63.6°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble58%62.6°F10.7°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend52%61.0°F8.8°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 244%59.7°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS HRES39%58.7°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON37%57.1°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261022-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 61°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗