KSLC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 53°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

85%

77%

73%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 86.5¢Risks 86.45u

HRESNO 13.5¢Risks 13.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +13.55u · HRES −13.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	93.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	77.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	79.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	74.6%	—	75.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	42.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	89.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	26.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	—	—	76.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	65.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	16.4%	—	76.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	36.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	62.6%	62.6%	—	77.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	79.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	89.5%	84.2%	59.7%	73.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	64.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	72.2%	72.8%	90.0%	91.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	80.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	95.6%	69.1%	81.1%	89.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	58.5%	—	75.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	99.4%	80.5%	77.6%	73.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	90.5%	—	77.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	98.9%	79.3%	92.9%	67.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	92.8%	54.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	94.1%	39.6%	84.9%	74.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	98.0%	95.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	69.4°F	6.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	96%	65.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	58.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	55.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	56.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	53.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	53.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261023-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 53°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗