KSLC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 53°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

85%

77%

73%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 86.5¢Risks 86.45u

HRESNO 13.5¢Risks 13.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +13.55u · HRES −13.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:25:12+00:00	84.5%	99.6%	98.0%	93.1%	83.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	84.5%	99.6%	98.0%	93.1%	83.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	84.5%	99.6%	98.0%	93.1%	83.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	84.5%	99.6%	85.2%	93.1%	83.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	84.5%	99.6%	85.2%	93.1%	83.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	84.5%	99.6%	85.2%	93.1%	83.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	87.8%	99.6%	85.2%	73.3%	96.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	87.8%	99.6%	85.2%	73.3%	96.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	87.8%	99.6%	85.2%	73.3%	96.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	87.8%	99.6%	85.2%	73.3%	96.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	87.8%	99.6%	85.2%	73.3%	96.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	87.8%	99.6%	76.6%	73.3%	96.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	87.8%	99.6%	76.6%	73.3%	96.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	87.8%	99.6%	76.6%	73.3%	96.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	85.0%	99.6%	76.6%	73.3%	96.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	85.0%	99.6%	76.6%	73.3%	96.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	85.0%	99.6%	76.6%	73.3%	96.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	69.4°F	6.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	96%	65.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	58.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	55.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	56.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	53.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	53.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261023-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 53°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗