KSLC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

59%

55%

50%

46%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 58.8¢Risks 58.75u

ICONNO 41.2¢Risks 41.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.25u · ICON −41.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	11.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	82.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	4.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	46.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	20.2%	—	59.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	62.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	4.5%	7.7%	—	73.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	68.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	68.9%	40.3%	7.9%	64.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	29.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	83.0%	55.8%	27.9%	70.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	58.2%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	79.5%	35.8%	61.3%	53.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	24.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	25.5%	23.0%	10.8%	37.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	54.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	59.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	57.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	57.2°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	56.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	46%	55.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	55.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261024-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗