KSLC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

59%

55%

50%

46%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 58.8¢Risks 58.75u

ICONNO 41.2¢Risks 41.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.25u · ICON −41.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:34+00:00	69.9%	76.7%	45.3%	79.0%	77.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	69.9%	76.7%	64.5%	79.0%	77.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	69.9%	76.7%	64.5%	79.0%	77.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	69.9%	76.7%	64.5%	79.0%	77.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	69.9%	76.7%	64.5%	79.0%	77.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00	85.0%	76.7%	64.5%	77.1%	89.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	85.0%	76.7%	64.5%	77.1%	89.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	85.0%	76.7%	64.5%	77.1%	89.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	85.0%	76.7%	64.5%	77.1%	89.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	85.0%	76.7%	64.5%	77.1%	89.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	85.0%	52.1%	69.6%	77.1%	89.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00	85.0%	52.1%	69.6%	77.1%	89.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	85.0%	52.1%	69.6%	77.1%	89.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	76.5%	52.1%	69.6%	77.1%	89.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	76.5%	52.1%	69.6%	77.1%	89.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:22+00:00	67.8%	54.9%	16.2%	35.2%	86.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	67.8%	54.9%	44.0%	35.2%	86.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	67.8%	54.9%	44.0%	35.2%	86.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	67.8%	54.9%	44.0%	35.2%	86.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00	71.4%	54.9%	44.0%	50.0%	46.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	71.4%	54.9%	44.0%	50.0%	46.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	71.4%	54.9%	44.0%	50.0%	46.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	71.4%	54.9%	44.0%	50.0%	46.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	71.4%	54.9%	44.0%	50.0%	46.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00	71.4%	54.7%	58.7%	50.0%	46.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	71.4%	54.7%	58.7%	50.0%	46.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	59.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	57.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	57.2°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	56.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	46%	55.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	55.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261024-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗