KSLC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

58%

51%

49%

31%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 51.3¢Risks 51.35u

EPSNO 48.7¢Risks 48.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +48.65u · EPS −48.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	8.8%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	30.1%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	77.7%	11.1%	41.3%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	79.1%	23.5%	5.2%	—	73.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	53.6%	29.1%	13.6%	—	56.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	84.9%	11.0%	86.7%	—	52.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	18.4%	28.8%	10.8%	36.7%	33.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	16.3%	—	—	27.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	72%	65.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	62.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	61.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	61.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	61.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	58.7°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261025-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗