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KSLC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
72%
WN2
58%
HRES
51%
AIFS
49%
EPS
31%
Consensus
52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 51.3¢Risks 51.35u
VS
EPSNO 48.7¢Risks 48.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +48.65u · EPS −48.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:22+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.0% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.5% · 2026-10-19T04:31:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-10-19T04:31:22+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00ICON: 82.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:22+00:00ICON: 82.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00ICON: 82.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00ICON: 82.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00ICON: 72.2% · 2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:22+00:0051.4%50.7%19.5%80.3%82.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:0051.4%50.7%38.5%80.3%82.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:0051.4%50.7%38.5%80.3%82.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:0051.4%50.7%38.5%80.3%82.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:0068.5%50.7%38.5%51.2%72.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:0068.5%50.7%38.5%51.2%72.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0068.5%50.7%38.5%51.2%72.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0068.5%50.7%38.5%51.2%72.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:0068.5%50.7%38.5%51.2%72.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:0068.5%31.0%58.5%51.2%72.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:0068.5%31.0%58.5%51.2%72.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:0068.5%31.0%58.5%51.2%72.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:0049.3%31.0%58.5%51.2%72.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:0049.3%31.0%58.5%51.2%71.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON72%65.6°F7.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 258%62.5°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%62.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS HRES51%61.7°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single49%61.4°F5.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
National Blend46%61.0°F5.5°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble31%58.7°F5.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261025-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗