KSMF / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 81°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 10 · 02:25 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

88%

84%

82%

70%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 82.0¢Risks 82.05u

ICONNO 17.9¢Risks 17.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.95u · ICON −17.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	94.2%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	93.7%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	95.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	95.7%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	93.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	91.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	—	—	—	95.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	—	—	—	88.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	—	—	—	93.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	66.5%	—	—	89.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	84.0%	—	—	91.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	64.5%	—	—	82.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	87.3%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	0.0%	97.6%	0.0%	—	87.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	98.3%	97.5%	96.8%	79.5%	—	90.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	86.2%	93.0%	99.8%	91.9%	52.3%	91.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	97.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	97.8%	99.7%	94.1%	—	95.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	99.1%	95.1%	97.2%	—	91.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	21.4%	97.9%	—	—	97.2%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	99.6%	99.9%	99.3%	—	97.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	98.2%	100.0%	—	—	94.8%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	99.8%	99.9%	97.9%	—	97.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	94.1%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	0.0%	82.3%	55.8%	—	83.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	68.3%	86.0%	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	—	37.8%	61.2%	69.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	45.8%	86.2%	—	—	56.3%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	55.5%	80.2%	29.2%	—	57.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	48.9%	90.8%	0.0%	—	63.3%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	46.5%	82.5%	31.0%	68.0%	66.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	35.9%	79.2%	34.7%	—	56.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	32.0%	65.8%	50.0%	58.7%	59.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	26.9%	69.8%	46.1%	—	61.5%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	56.7%	31.9%	59.3%	63.2%	56.7%	59.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	37.7%	62.3%	61.0%	—	62.3%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.4%	34.5%	74.4%	69.5%	68.2%	64.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	35.2%	77.6%	74.0%	—	60.5%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	31.7%	63.9%	71.0%	48.4%	63.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	30.9%	50.0%	56.6%	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	88.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-09 12:00	0.8949
AIFS Single	88%	86.9°F	5.5°F	2026-09-09 18:00	0.7709
IFS Ensemble	84%	86.3°F	5.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	0.7106
IFS HRES	82%	86.1°F	6.1°F	2026-09-09 12:00	0.6708
ICON	70%	85.5°F	9.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	0.4830
National Blend	55%	81.4°F	7.2°F	2026-09-09 06:00	0.3025

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20260916-TMAX-GE81
Opened Sep 09 · 11:22 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 81°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗