KSMF / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 81°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 10 · 02:25 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

88%

84%

82%

70%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 82.0¢Risks 82.05u

ICONNO 17.9¢Risks 17.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.95u · ICON −17.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T02:25:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T11:22:51+00:00	97.0%	84.0%	94.1%	69.3%	5.0%
2026-09-09T12:07:57+00:00	97.0%	84.0%	94.1%	69.3%	5.0%
2026-09-09T12:53:01+00:00	97.0%	84.0%	94.1%	69.3%	5.0%
2026-09-09T13:38:07+00:00	97.4%	84.0%	94.1%	69.3%	5.0%
2026-09-09T14:23:23+00:00	97.4%	84.1%	94.1%	69.3%	5.1%
2026-09-09T15:08:32+00:00	97.4%	89.9%	94.1%	69.3%	5.1%
2026-09-09T15:53:37+00:00	97.4%	89.9%	94.1%	69.3%	5.1%
2026-09-09T16:38:42+00:00	97.4%	89.9%	94.1%	69.3%	5.6%
2026-09-09T17:23:48+00:00	97.4%	89.9%	94.6%	69.3%	5.6%
2026-09-09T18:08:55+00:00	97.4%	89.9%	94.6%	69.3%	5.6%
2026-09-09T18:53:59+00:00	97.4%	89.9%	94.6%	69.3%	5.6%
2026-09-09T19:39:11+00:00	96.5%	89.9%	94.6%	81.9%	69.9%
2026-09-09T20:24:16+00:00	96.5%	89.9%	94.6%	81.9%	69.9%
2026-09-09T21:09:20+00:00	96.5%	89.9%	94.6%	81.9%	69.9%
2026-09-09T21:54:28+00:00	96.5%	89.9%	94.6%	81.9%	69.9%
2026-09-09T22:39:33+00:00	96.5%	89.9%	94.6%	81.9%	69.9%
2026-09-09T23:24:39+00:00	96.5%	89.9%	94.6%	81.9%	69.9%
2026-09-10T00:09:44+00:00	96.5%	89.9%	94.6%	81.9%	69.9%
2026-09-10T00:54:52+00:00	96.5%	89.9%	94.6%	81.9%	69.9%
2026-09-10T01:39:58+00:00	87.8%	89.9%	94.6%	81.9%	69.9%
2026-09-10T02:25:06+00:00	87.8%	84.3%	94.6%	81.9%	69.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	88.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-09 12:00	0.8949
AIFS Single	88%	86.9°F	5.5°F	2026-09-09 18:00	0.7709
IFS Ensemble	84%	86.3°F	5.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	0.7106
IFS HRES	82%	86.1°F	6.1°F	2026-09-09 12:00	0.6708
ICON	70%	85.5°F	9.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	0.4830
National Blend	55%	81.4°F	7.2°F	2026-09-09 06:00	0.3025

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20260916-TMAX-GE81
Opened Sep 09 · 11:22 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 81°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗