KSMF / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 17 · 09:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

89%

86%

83%

19%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.5¢Risks 57.45u

ICONNO 42.5¢Risks 42.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.55u · ICON −42.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	99.4%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	98.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	98.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	98.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	98.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	96.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	98.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	95.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—	96.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	97.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	10.6%	—	—	95.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	98.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	81.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	97.9%	—	—	97.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	97.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	80.7%	—	—	97.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	99.9%	—	—	97.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	25.7%	100.0%	1.4%	77.6%	97.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	99.7%	100.0%	99.6%	—	99.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.2%	99.9%	98.6%	94.2%	—	98.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	33.7%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	100.0%	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	99.9%	100.0%	99.8%	—	99.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.2%	44.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.4%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	99.3%	68.6%	—	96.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	0.0%	95.9%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	28.2%	—	86.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	0.0%	91.2%	—	—	84.1%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	2.7%	88.9%	27.9%	—	80.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	84.2%	83.6%	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.9%	0.9%	86.6%	58.2%	0.0%	92.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	60.5%	92.8%	—	—	83.1%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	58.7%	88.6%	24.7%	0.0%	70.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	72.4%	91.3%	0.0%	—	41.0%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	63.7%	88.4%	34.1%	—	68.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	77.5%	83.3%	30.4%	—	70.7%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	58.7%	90.0%	48.8%	57.4%	66.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	57.7%	85.0%	46.1%	—	73.1%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	50.0%	80.9%	35.6%	48.7%	68.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	39.0%	80.9%	33.8%	—	63.7%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.8%	40.0%	82.8%	28.0%	50.0%	52.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	42.5%	82.8%	45.5%	—	63.3%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	53.2%	77.4%	45.3%	57.9%	68.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	67.6%	43.4%	43.4%	41.8%	—	48.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	83.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 18:00	0.9197
AIFS Single	89%	81.2°F	3.0°F	2026-09-17 00:00	0.7868
IFS Ensemble	86%	81.4°F	3.7°F	2026-09-16 00:00	0.7310
IFS HRES	83%	81.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	0.6906
NWS forecast	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 02:00	0.3481
National Blend	41%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 00:00	0.1689
ICON	19%	74.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 00:00	0.0361

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20260917-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 78°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗