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KSMF / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 17 · 09:43 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
96%
AIFS
89%
EPS
86%
HRES
83%
ICON
19%
Consensus
73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 57.5¢Risks 57.45u
VS
ICONNO 42.5¢Risks 42.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.55u · ICON −42.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-09-17T02:57:27+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-09-17T03:42:37+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-09-17T04:27:43+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-09-17T05:12:50+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-09-17T05:57:55+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-09-17T06:43:03+00:00AIFS Single: 88.7% · 2026-09-17T07:28:08+00:00AIFS Single: 88.7% · 2026-09-17T08:13:12+00:00AIFS Single: 88.7% · 2026-09-17T08:58:20+00:00AIFS Single: 88.7% · 2026-09-17T09:43:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-09-17T02:57:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-09-17T03:42:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-09-17T04:27:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-09-17T05:12:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-09-17T05:57:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-09-17T06:43:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-09-17T07:28:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-09-17T08:13:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-09-17T08:58:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-09-17T09:43:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.2% · 2026-09-17T02:57:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.2% · 2026-09-17T03:42:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.2% · 2026-09-17T04:27:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-09-17T05:12:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-09-17T05:57:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-09-17T06:43:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-09-17T07:28:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-09-17T08:13:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-09-17T08:58:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-09-17T09:43:25+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-09-17T02:57:27+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-09-17T03:42:37+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-09-17T04:27:43+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-09-17T05:12:50+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-09-17T05:57:55+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-09-17T06:43:03+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-09-17T07:28:08+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-09-17T08:13:12+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-09-17T08:58:20+00:00IFS HRES: 83.1% · 2026-09-17T09:43:25+00:00ICON: 34.7% · 2026-09-17T02:57:27+00:00ICON: 34.7% · 2026-09-17T03:42:37+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-09-17T04:27:43+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-09-17T05:12:50+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-09-17T05:57:55+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-09-17T06:43:03+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-09-17T07:28:08+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-09-17T08:13:12+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-09-17T08:58:20+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-09-17T09:43:25+00:0009-17 02:5709-17 06:4309-17 09:43
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-17T09:43:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-17T02:57:27+00:0085.2%85.5%96.2%83.1%34.7%
2026-09-17T03:42:37+00:0085.2%85.5%96.2%83.1%34.7%
2026-09-17T04:27:43+00:0085.2%85.5%96.2%83.1%19.0%
2026-09-17T05:12:50+00:0085.2%85.5%95.9%83.1%19.0%
2026-09-17T05:57:55+00:0085.2%85.5%95.9%83.1%19.0%
2026-09-17T06:43:03+00:0085.2%85.5%95.9%83.1%19.0%
2026-09-17T07:28:08+00:0088.7%85.5%95.9%83.1%19.0%
2026-09-17T08:13:12+00:0088.7%85.5%95.9%83.1%19.0%
2026-09-17T08:58:20+00:0088.7%85.5%95.9%83.1%19.0%
2026-09-17T09:43:25+00:0088.7%85.5%95.9%83.1%19.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 296%83.4°F3.4°F2026-09-16 18:000.9197
AIFS Single89%81.2°F3.0°F2026-09-17 00:000.7868
IFS Ensemble86%81.4°F3.7°F2026-09-16 00:000.7310
IFS HRES83%81.1°F3.8°F2026-09-16 12:000.6906
NWS forecast59%78.0°F2.2°F2026-09-17 02:000.3481
National Blend41%77.0°F2.2°F2026-09-17 00:000.1689
ICON19%74.5°F3.4°F2026-09-17 00:000.0361

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20260917-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 78°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗