KSMF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

91%

87%

79%

35%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 67.3¢Risks 67.35u

ICONNO 32.6¢Risks 32.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +32.65u · ICON −32.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	97.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	98.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	97.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	—	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	98.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	97.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	45.2%	—	—	96.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	62.2%	—	—	92.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	4.3%	54.0%	—	—	78.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	96.5%	53.5%	7.2%	—	85.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.0%	63.6%	58.7%	8.4%	—	71.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	93.0%	64.2%	56.8%	—	62.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	71.9%	92.8%	83.2%	—	84.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	30.0%	69.2%	79.3%	—	95.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	13.7%	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	62.9%	55.2%	80.4%	—	77.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	47.3%	70.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	45.4%	74.1%	61.8%	—	56.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	17.7%	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	77.5%	49.0%	51.9%	—	57.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	22.6%	64.7%	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	56.1%	62.2%	50.0%	—	49.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	41.6%	64.5%	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	43.5%	69.9%	52.2%	0.0%	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	29.6%	83.9%	0.0%	—	52.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	55.8%	84.7%	81.7%	71.0%	57.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	19.1%	84.0%	72.7%	—	59.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	53.7%	91.5%	64.6%	—	61.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	74.1%	55.1%	89.7%	57.7%	—	62.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	48.7%	89.3%	59.3%	82.7%	63.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	70.0%	44.4%	93.8%	48.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	69.5%	50.0%	93.7%	47.1%	80.9%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	84.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	75.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	73.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	73.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	35%	69.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗