KSMF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

91%

87%

79%

35%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 67.3¢Risks 67.35u

ICONNO 32.6¢Risks 32.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +32.65u · ICON −32.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:00:13+00:00	85.0%	99.2%	80.2%	35.2%	94.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	85.0%	99.2%	80.2%	35.2%	94.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	85.0%	99.2%	80.2%	35.2%	94.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	85.0%	99.2%	80.2%	35.2%	94.6%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	85.0%	99.2%	80.2%	35.2%	94.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:20+00:00	85.0%	99.2%	80.2%	35.2%	94.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	77.9%	99.2%	80.2%	35.2%	82.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	77.9%	99.2%	80.2%	35.2%	82.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	77.9%	99.2%	80.2%	35.2%	82.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	77.9%	99.2%	80.2%	35.2%	82.5%
2026-10-14T10:34:50+00:00	77.9%	99.2%	80.2%	52.1%	82.5%
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00	77.9%	99.2%	78.8%	52.1%	82.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	77.9%	99.2%	78.8%	52.1%	82.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	77.9%	99.2%	78.8%	52.1%	82.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	93.3%	99.2%	78.8%	52.1%	82.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	93.2%	99.2%	78.9%	52.1%	82.3%
2026-10-16T04:25:07+00:00	91.8%	99.9%	81.2%	61.0%	59.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	91.8%	99.9%	79.8%	61.0%	59.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	91.8%	99.9%	79.8%	61.0%	59.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	91.8%	99.9%	79.8%	61.0%	59.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	91.2%	99.9%	79.8%	61.0%	83.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	91.2%	99.9%	79.8%	61.0%	83.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	91.2%	99.9%	79.8%	61.0%	83.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	91.2%	99.9%	79.8%	61.0%	83.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	91.2%	99.9%	79.8%	61.0%	83.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	91.2%	100.0%	83.6%	61.0%	83.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	91.2%	100.0%	83.6%	61.0%	83.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	91.2%	100.0%	83.6%	61.0%	83.1%
2026-10-16T13:29:00+00:00	88.3%	100.0%	83.6%	58.0%	83.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	88.3%	100.0%	83.6%	58.0%	83.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:49+00:00	88.3%	100.0%	83.6%	58.0%	83.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	88.3%	100.0%	83.6%	58.0%	83.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	88.3%	100.0%	83.6%	58.0%	83.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	88.3%	100.0%	75.3%	58.0%	83.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	88.3%	100.0%	75.3%	58.0%	83.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	88.3%	100.0%	75.3%	58.0%	83.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	84.8%	100.0%	75.3%	58.0%	62.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	84.8%	100.0%	75.3%	58.0%	62.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	84.8%	100.0%	75.3%	58.0%	62.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	84.8%	100.0%	75.3%	58.0%	62.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	84.8%	100.0%	75.3%	56.2%	62.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	84.8%	100.0%	75.3%	56.2%	62.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	84.8%	100.0%	75.3%	56.2%	62.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	84.8%	100.0%	75.3%	56.2%	62.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	85.3%	100.0%	75.3%	56.2%	62.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	85.3%	100.0%	75.3%	56.2%	62.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	85.3%	100.0%	75.3%	56.2%	62.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	85.3%	100.0%	75.3%	56.2%	62.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:37+00:00	85.3%	100.0%	75.3%	56.2%	62.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	85.3%	100.0%	79.7%	56.2%	62.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	85.3%	100.0%	79.7%	56.2%	62.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	85.3%	100.0%	79.7%	56.2%	62.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:08+00:00	85.5%	100.0%	79.7%	63.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00	85.5%	100.0%	79.7%	63.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	85.5%	100.0%	79.7%	63.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	85.5%	100.0%	79.7%	63.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	85.5%	100.0%	79.7%	63.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	85.5%	99.9%	84.9%	63.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	85.5%	99.9%	84.9%	63.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	85.5%	99.9%	84.9%	63.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	89.9%	99.9%	84.9%	63.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	90.0%	99.9%	84.9%	63.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	90.0%	99.9%	84.9%	63.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	90.0%	99.9%	84.9%	63.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	90.0%	99.9%	84.1%	63.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	90.0%	99.9%	84.1%	63.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	90.0%	99.9%	84.1%	63.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	90.0%	99.9%	84.1%	63.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:18+00:00	93.7%	99.9%	84.1%	74.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	93.7%	99.9%	84.1%	74.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	93.7%	99.9%	84.1%	74.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	93.7%	99.9%	84.1%	74.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	93.7%	99.9%	87.7%	74.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	93.7%	99.9%	87.7%	74.5%	52.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	93.7%	99.9%	87.7%	74.5%	52.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	93.7%	99.9%	87.7%	74.5%	52.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	93.0%	99.9%	87.7%	74.5%	52.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	93.0%	99.9%	87.7%	74.5%	52.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	93.0%	99.9%	87.7%	74.5%	52.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:52+00:00	93.0%	99.9%	87.7%	74.5%	52.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	93.0%	99.9%	87.1%	74.5%	52.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	93.0%	99.9%	87.1%	74.5%	52.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	93.0%	99.9%	87.1%	74.5%	52.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	93.0%	99.9%	87.1%	74.5%	52.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:00	92.6%	99.9%	87.1%	79.0%	38.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	92.6%	99.9%	87.1%	79.0%	38.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	92.6%	99.9%	87.1%	79.0%	38.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	92.6%	99.9%	87.1%	79.0%	38.8%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	92.6%	100.0%	89.8%	79.0%	38.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	92.6%	100.0%	89.8%	79.0%	38.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	92.6%	100.0%	89.8%	79.0%	38.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	92.6%	100.0%	89.8%	79.0%	38.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	92.6%	100.0%	89.8%	79.1%	38.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00	92.6%	100.0%	89.8%	79.1%	38.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	92.6%	100.0%	89.8%	79.1%	38.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	92.6%	100.0%	89.8%	79.1%	38.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	92.6%	100.0%	84.9%	79.1%	38.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	92.6%	100.0%	84.9%	79.1%	38.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	92.6%	100.0%	84.9%	79.1%	38.9%
2026-10-18T19:28:01+00:00	90.7%	100.0%	84.9%	79.1%	34.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	90.7%	100.0%	84.9%	79.1%	34.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	90.7%	100.0%	84.9%	79.1%	34.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	90.7%	100.0%	84.9%	79.1%	34.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	90.7%	100.0%	84.9%	79.1%	34.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	90.7%	100.0%	87.2%	79.1%	34.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	90.7%	100.0%	87.2%	79.1%	34.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	90.7%	100.0%	87.2%	79.1%	34.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	91.1%	100.0%	87.2%	79.1%	34.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	91.1%	100.0%	87.2%	79.1%	34.7%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	91.1%	100.0%	87.2%	79.1%	34.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	91.1%	100.0%	87.2%	79.1%	34.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	84.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	75.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	73.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	73.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	35%	69.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗