KSMF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

80%

68%

61%

17%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 58.4¢Risks 58.40u

ICONNO 41.6¢Risks 41.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.60u · ICON −41.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	96.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	97.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	97.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	97.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	94.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	97.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	97.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	67.1%	—	—	—	—	98.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	97.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	97.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	95.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	33.5%	—	—	92.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	—	—	—	87.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	49.4%	—	—	85.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	89.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	2.0%	40.6%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	92.8%	39.6%	3.5%	—	75.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	49.3%	44.2%	4.1%	—	58.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	86.2%	49.2%	41.7%	—	46.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	57.1%	85.5%	71.2%	—	72.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.9%	17.3%	53.3%	65.5%	—	89.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	6.4%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	45.6%	37.9%	66.2%	—	62.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	30.2%	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	28.2%	57.3%	43.6%	—	38.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	8.1%	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	60.6%	30.4%	33.0%	—	38.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	10.5%	45.0%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	35.9%	41.8%	30.3%	—	29.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	22.8%	43.7%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	23.8%	48.9%	31.1%	0.0%	29.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	13.5%	66.4%	0.0%	—	30.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	33.1%	66.9%	62.6%	48.8%	34.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.4%	7.0%	65.3%	50.0%	—	35.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	29.8%	77.3%	40.1%	—	36.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	30.2%	73.1%	32.5%	—	37.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	24.0%	71.6%	33.1%	60.6%	36.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	20.1%	79.9%	23.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	41.4%	23.4%	78.8%	21.2%	55.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	84.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	75.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	73.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	73.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	69.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗