KSMF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

80%

68%

61%

17%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 58.4¢Risks 58.40u

ICONNO 41.6¢Risks 41.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.60u · ICON −41.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:45+00:00	86.1%	98.2%	62.4%	38.4%	72.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	86.1%	98.2%	62.4%	38.4%	72.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	86.1%	98.2%	62.4%	38.4%	72.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	86.1%	98.2%	72.0%	38.4%	72.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	86.1%	98.2%	72.0%	38.4%	72.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	86.1%	98.2%	72.0%	38.4%	72.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	84.3%	98.2%	72.0%	84.3%	37.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	84.3%	98.2%	72.0%	84.3%	37.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	84.3%	98.2%	72.0%	84.3%	37.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	84.3%	98.2%	72.0%	84.3%	37.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	84.3%	98.2%	72.0%	84.3%	37.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	84.3%	98.2%	70.4%	84.3%	37.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	84.3%	98.2%	70.4%	84.3%	37.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	84.3%	98.2%	70.4%	84.3%	37.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	86.1%	98.2%	70.4%	84.3%	37.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	86.1%	98.2%	70.4%	84.3%	37.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	86.1%	98.2%	70.4%	84.3%	37.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	86.1%	98.2%	70.4%	84.3%	37.5%
2026-10-15T04:48:12+00:00	86.1%	98.2%	70.4%	84.3%	37.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	86.1%	98.2%	68.7%	84.3%	37.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	86.1%	98.2%	68.7%	84.3%	37.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	86.1%	98.2%	68.7%	84.3%	37.5%
2026-10-15T07:50:34+00:00	85.2%	98.2%	68.7%	51.6%	59.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	85.2%	98.2%	68.7%	51.6%	59.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	85.2%	98.2%	68.7%	51.6%	59.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	85.2%	98.2%	68.7%	51.6%	59.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	85.2%	98.2%	62.6%	51.6%	59.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:42+00:00	85.2%	98.2%	62.6%	51.6%	59.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	85.2%	99.4%	62.6%	51.6%	59.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:40+00:00	85.2%	99.4%	62.6%	51.6%	59.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	84.2%	99.4%	62.6%	51.6%	59.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	84.2%	99.4%	62.6%	51.6%	59.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:42+00:00	84.2%	99.5%	62.6%	51.6%	59.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	84.2%	99.5%	62.6%	51.6%	59.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	84.2%	99.5%	65.7%	51.6%	59.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	84.2%	99.5%	65.7%	51.6%	59.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	84.2%	99.5%	65.7%	51.6%	59.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	84.2%	99.5%	65.7%	51.6%	59.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:23+00:00	83.1%	99.5%	65.7%	45.2%	43.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	83.1%	99.5%	65.7%	45.2%	43.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	83.1%	99.5%	65.7%	45.2%	43.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	83.1%	99.5%	65.7%	45.2%	43.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	83.1%	99.5%	63.7%	45.2%	43.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	83.1%	99.5%	63.7%	45.2%	43.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	83.1%	99.5%	63.7%	45.2%	43.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:52+00:00	83.1%	99.5%	63.7%	45.2%	43.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	83.1%	99.5%	63.7%	45.2%	43.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	83.1%	99.5%	63.7%	45.2%	43.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	83.1%	99.5%	63.7%	45.2%	43.5%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	79.9%	99.9%	67.2%	60.6%	16.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	79.9%	99.9%	68.5%	60.6%	16.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	79.9%	99.9%	68.5%	60.6%	16.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	79.9%	99.9%	68.5%	60.6%	16.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	84.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	75.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	73.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	73.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	69.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗