KSMF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 88°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 20.8¢Risks 20.85u

WN2NO 79.1¢Risks 79.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.15u · WN2 −79.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	58.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	0.7%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.0%	0.3%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	11.9%	0.2%	0.0%	—	2.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.8%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	2.6%	0.7%	—	0.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	—	3.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	41%	85.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1697
IFS Ensemble	15%	82.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0237
AIFS Single	4%	77.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0019
IFS HRES	4%	76.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0012
NWS forecast	2%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0003
National Blend	<1%	74.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	<1%	74.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261019-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗