KSMF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 88°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 20.8¢Risks 20.85u

WN2NO 79.1¢Risks 79.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.15u · WN2 −79.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:49:05+00:00	5.2%	23.5%	0.7%	6.7%	1.1%
2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00	5.2%	23.5%	0.7%	6.7%	1.1%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	5.2%	23.5%	0.7%	6.7%	1.1%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	5.2%	23.5%	0.7%	6.7%	1.1%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	5.2%	23.5%	0.7%	6.7%	1.1%
2026-10-12T11:35:42+00:00	5.2%	23.5%	0.4%	6.7%	1.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	1.8%	15.4%	0.7%	3.5%	41.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	1.8%	15.4%	0.7%	3.5%	41.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	1.8%	15.4%	0.7%	3.5%	41.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	1.8%	15.4%	0.7%	3.5%	41.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	4.4%	15.4%	0.7%	3.5%	41.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	4.4%	15.4%	0.7%	3.5%	41.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	4.4%	15.4%	0.7%	3.5%	41.2%
2026-10-13T04:16:34+00:00	4.4%	15.4%	0.7%	3.5%	41.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	4.4%	15.4%	0.5%	3.5%	41.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	4.4%	15.4%	0.5%	3.5%	41.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	4.4%	15.4%	0.5%	3.5%	41.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	4.4%	15.4%	0.5%	3.5%	41.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	41%	85.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1697
IFS Ensemble	15%	82.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0237
AIFS Single	4%	77.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0019
IFS HRES	4%	76.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0012
NWS forecast	2%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0003
National Blend	<1%	74.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	<1%	74.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261019-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗