KSMF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

61%

53%

17%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 41.1¢Risks 41.15u

AIFSNO 58.9¢Risks 58.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +58.85u · AIFS −58.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	96.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	95.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	91.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	79.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	2.4%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	5.9%	75.6%	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	78.1%	63.1%	2.9%	—	88.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.3%	3.2%	65.7%	29.7%	—	62.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	46.2%	21.1%	87.8%	—	64.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	98.8%	70.5%	98.5%	—	76.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	96.7%	79.3%	77.5%	—	67.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	0.3%	86.3%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	84.9%	95.3%	40.5%	—	73.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	15.0%	87.0%	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	6.3%	60.9%	5.3%	—	52.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	11.3%	30.9%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	70.4%	78.2%	0.4%	—	39.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	26.5%	34.4%	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	41.8%	88.2%	1.3%	—	34.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	79.5%	87.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	41.3%	53.3%	22.1%	—	38.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	94.0%	59.0%	0.0%	—	40.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	90.6%	69.0%	0.2%	0.0%	48.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	96.0%	64.1%	0.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	68.0%	61.1%	0.9%	19.1%	34.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	36.1%	2.6%	—	30.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	75%	75.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	73.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	53%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	69.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	66.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗