KSMF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

61%

53%

17%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 41.1¢Risks 41.15u

AIFSNO 58.9¢Risks 58.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +58.85u · AIFS −58.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00	95.1%	61.0%	61.1%	73.6%	31.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	95.1%	61.0%	61.1%	73.6%	31.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	95.1%	61.0%	61.1%	73.6%	31.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	92.5%	61.0%	61.1%	73.6%	31.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	92.5%	61.0%	61.0%	73.6%	32.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:46+00:00	92.5%	61.9%	61.0%	73.6%	32.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	92.5%	61.9%	61.0%	73.6%	32.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	92.5%	61.9%	61.0%	73.6%	32.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	92.5%	61.9%	71.2%	73.6%	32.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	92.5%	61.9%	71.2%	73.6%	32.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	92.5%	61.9%	71.2%	73.6%	32.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	89.0%	61.9%	71.2%	71.5%	81.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	89.0%	61.9%	71.2%	71.5%	81.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	89.0%	61.9%	71.2%	71.5%	81.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	89.0%	61.9%	71.2%	71.5%	81.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	89.0%	61.9%	71.2%	71.5%	81.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	89.0%	61.9%	67.0%	71.5%	81.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	89.0%	61.9%	67.0%	71.5%	81.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	89.0%	61.9%	67.0%	71.5%	81.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	84.5%	61.9%	67.0%	71.5%	81.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	84.5%	61.9%	67.0%	71.5%	81.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	84.5%	61.9%	67.0%	71.5%	81.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	84.5%	61.9%	67.0%	71.5%	81.7%
2026-10-15T04:48:12+00:00	84.5%	61.9%	67.0%	71.5%	81.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	84.5%	61.9%	63.3%	71.5%	81.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	84.5%	61.9%	63.3%	71.5%	81.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	84.5%	61.9%	63.3%	71.5%	81.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:34+00:00	89.0%	61.9%	63.3%	22.4%	17.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	89.0%	61.9%	63.3%	22.4%	17.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	89.0%	61.9%	63.3%	22.4%	17.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	89.0%	61.9%	63.3%	22.4%	17.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	89.0%	61.9%	66.6%	22.4%	17.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:42+00:00	89.0%	61.9%	66.6%	22.4%	17.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	89.0%	52.2%	66.6%	22.4%	17.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:40+00:00	89.0%	52.2%	66.6%	22.4%	17.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	84.2%	52.2%	66.6%	22.4%	18.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	84.2%	52.2%	66.6%	22.4%	18.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:37+00:00	65.7%	66.3%	59.6%	79.2%	97.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	65.7%	66.3%	50.0%	79.2%	97.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	65.7%	66.3%	50.0%	79.2%	97.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	65.7%	66.3%	50.0%	79.2%	97.2%
2026-10-17T07:45:09+00:00	70.0%	66.3%	50.0%	96.2%	90.6%
2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00	70.0%	66.3%	50.0%	96.2%	90.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	70.0%	66.3%	50.0%	96.2%	90.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	70.0%	66.3%	50.0%	96.2%	90.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	70.0%	66.3%	50.0%	96.2%	90.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	70.0%	67.0%	61.6%	96.2%	90.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	70.0%	67.0%	61.6%	96.2%	90.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	70.0%	67.0%	61.6%	96.2%	90.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	72.2%	67.0%	61.6%	96.2%	90.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	72.2%	66.7%	61.6%	96.2%	90.5%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	72.2%	67.7%	61.6%	96.2%	90.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	72.2%	67.7%	61.6%	96.2%	90.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	72.2%	67.7%	64.6%	96.2%	90.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	72.2%	67.7%	64.6%	96.2%	90.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	72.2%	67.7%	64.6%	96.2%	90.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	72.2%	67.7%	64.6%	96.2%	90.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:18+00:00	62.0%	67.7%	64.6%	60.3%	15.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	62.0%	67.7%	64.6%	60.3%	15.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	62.0%	67.7%	64.6%	60.3%	15.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	62.0%	67.7%	64.6%	60.3%	15.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	62.0%	67.7%	48.9%	60.3%	15.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	62.0%	67.7%	48.9%	60.3%	15.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	62.0%	67.7%	48.9%	60.3%	15.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	62.0%	67.7%	48.9%	60.3%	15.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	38.0%	67.7%	48.9%	60.3%	15.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	38.0%	67.7%	48.9%	60.3%	15.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	38.0%	67.7%	48.9%	60.3%	15.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:52+00:00	38.0%	67.7%	48.9%	60.3%	15.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	38.0%	67.7%	37.4%	60.3%	15.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	38.0%	67.7%	37.4%	60.3%	15.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	38.0%	67.7%	37.4%	60.3%	15.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	38.0%	67.7%	37.4%	60.3%	15.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:00	12.1%	67.7%	37.4%	75.6%	76.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	12.1%	67.7%	37.4%	75.6%	76.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	12.1%	67.7%	37.4%	75.6%	76.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	12.1%	67.7%	37.4%	75.6%	76.7%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	12.1%	55.2%	17.1%	75.6%	76.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	12.1%	55.2%	17.1%	75.6%	76.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	12.1%	55.2%	17.1%	75.6%	76.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	12.1%	55.2%	17.1%	75.6%	76.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	22.0%	55.0%	17.1%	75.6%	76.6%
2026-10-20T04:05:44+00:00	16.7%	61.8%	29.2%	82.3%	88.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	16.7%	61.8%	29.2%	82.3%	88.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	16.7%	61.8%	25.9%	82.3%	88.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	16.7%	61.8%	25.9%	82.3%	88.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	16.7%	61.8%	25.9%	82.3%	88.1%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	7.3%	61.8%	25.9%	82.3%	53.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	7.3%	61.8%	25.9%	82.3%	53.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	7.3%	61.8%	25.9%	82.3%	53.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	7.3%	61.8%	25.9%	82.3%	53.4%
2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00	7.3%	60.8%	16.8%	75.0%	53.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	7.3%	60.8%	16.8%	75.0%	53.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	7.3%	60.8%	16.8%	75.0%	53.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	7.3%	60.8%	16.8%	75.0%	53.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	7.3%	60.8%	16.8%	75.0%	53.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	7.3%	60.8%	16.8%	75.0%	53.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	75%	75.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	73.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	53%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	69.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	66.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗