KSMF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

56%

45%

41%

28%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 48.1¢Risks 48.05u

HRESNO 51.9¢Risks 51.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +51.95u · HRES −51.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	93.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	92.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	82.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	86.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	70.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	1.1%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	97.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.6%	2.9%	63.9%	—	—	63.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	66.4%	49.3%	1.2%	—	80.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	1.3%	51.5%	18.4%	—	47.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	31.6%	11.8%	78.4%	—	49.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	96.9%	55.6%	96.1%	—	62.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	92.3%	65.5%	63.1%	—	50.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	0.1%	74.7%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	72.4%	89.1%	24.8%	—	57.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	6.9%	75.0%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	2.3%	42.7%	1.9%	—	34.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	4.6%	16.5%	—	—	27.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	51.9%	61.5%	0.1%	—	22.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	13.0%	18.3%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	23.5%	74.9%	0.3%	—	18.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	61.5%	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	22.1%	32.1%	9.4%	—	19.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	83.9%	36.7%	0.0%	—	20.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	76.7%	46.5%	0.0%	0.0%	27.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	87.4%	40.5%	0.0%	—	27.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	43.8%	36.5%	0.1%	6.7%	15.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	15.8%	0.5%	—	12.2%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	4.6%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	77.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	56%	75.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	73.3°F	10.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	73.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	73.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	70.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗