KSMF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

56%

45%

41%

28%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 48.1¢Risks 48.05u

HRESNO 51.9¢Risks 51.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +51.95u · HRES −51.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:44+00:00	73.6%	45.4%	50.0%	14.4%	11.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	73.6%	45.4%	50.0%	14.4%	11.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	73.6%	45.4%	61.0%	14.4%	11.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	73.6%	45.4%	61.0%	14.4%	11.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	73.6%	45.4%	61.0%	14.4%	11.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	73.6%	45.4%	61.0%	14.4%	11.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:23+00:00	36.2%	45.4%	61.0%	28.2%	56.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	36.2%	45.4%	61.0%	28.2%	56.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	36.2%	45.4%	61.0%	28.2%	56.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	36.2%	45.4%	61.0%	28.2%	56.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	36.2%	45.4%	40.7%	28.2%	56.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	36.2%	45.4%	40.7%	28.2%	56.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	36.2%	45.4%	40.7%	28.2%	56.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:52+00:00	67.9%	45.4%	40.7%	28.2%	56.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	67.9%	45.4%	40.7%	28.2%	56.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	67.9%	45.4%	40.7%	28.2%	56.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	67.9%	45.4%	40.7%	28.2%	56.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	77.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	56%	75.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	73.3°F	10.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	73.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	73.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	70.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗