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KSMF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≤ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 19:00 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
27%
WN2
9%
EPS
4%
ICON
3%
HRES
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 13.7¢Risks 13.70u
VS
HRESNO 86.3¢Risks 86.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +86.30u · HRES −86.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 65.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 84.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 37.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 24.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 95.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 74.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 68.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 40.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 76.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 56.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 91.7% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 72.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 75.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 43.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 25.9% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 99.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 5.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 84.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-06 12:0010-13 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0072.1%————34.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0043.1%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:006.9%————0.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:005.2%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.2%————0.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:001.0%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:004.8%————0.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:001.3%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.1%————0.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:001.6%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.2%————0.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.3%————0.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0025.2%————0.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:004.0%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:001.5%————1.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:003.9%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0010.7%————0.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:004.0%—29.2%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:007.9%————2.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:002.2%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:009.5%—95.0%——5.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:009.7%—11.9%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:008.3%————7.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:009.2%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.8%————4.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:005.6%—2.0%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:004.0%—74.8%——3.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.8%—0.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:001.3%58.1%2.0%——2.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:001.9%—0.9%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:002.7%1.4%4.0%68.9%—0.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:003.9%—8.9%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:002.6%65.0%3.1%17.5%—3.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:003.8%—11.2%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0023.4%7.6%23.4%0.4%—2.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:004.8%—7.4%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:008.7%0.0%1.6%0.0%—1.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:007.3%—0.5%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:009.0%0.0%0.6%0.8%—1.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:009.9%84.8%0.2%——84.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:008.3%0.3%0.0%6.5%—0.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:006.9%22.2%0.2%——0.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0011.5%37.3%1.7%40.9%—2.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0029.2%24.6%8.1%——3.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0065.2%0.6%0.3%76.0%—4.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0048.0%8.4%5.4%——3.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0036.9%3.2%0.1%56.1%—4.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0023.6%0.2%0.1%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0066.9%2.4%1.1%7.7%—2.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0071.4%0.0%0.6%91.7%—2.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0045.4%0.0%0.2%72.0%99.8%1.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0053.6%0.0%0.3%75.6%—0.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0074.4%0.1%0.3%43.8%5.2%1.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0062.7%—1.3%25.9%—1.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single27%67.0°F4.0°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 29%68.7°F3.1°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
National Blend7%71.0°F4.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%74.1°F5.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast3%71.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
ICON3%71.4°F3.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES<1%74.8°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 64°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261021-TMAX-LE64
Opened Oct 17 · 19:56 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗