KSMF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≤ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 19:00 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 13.7¢Risks 13.70u

HRESNO 86.3¢Risks 86.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +86.30u · HRES −86.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T19:56:18+00:00	2.0%	6.6%	0.6%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	2.0%	6.6%	0.6%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	2.0%	6.6%	0.6%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	2.0%	6.6%	0.6%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	2.0%	6.6%	1.7%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	2.0%	6.6%	1.7%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	2.0%	6.6%	1.7%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	2.0%	6.6%	1.7%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	7.5%	6.6%	1.7%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	7.5%	6.6%	1.7%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	7.5%	6.6%	1.7%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:52+00:00	7.5%	6.6%	1.7%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	7.5%	6.6%	3.4%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	7.5%	6.6%	3.4%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	7.5%	6.6%	3.4%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	7.5%	6.6%	3.4%	3.1%	26.3%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	24.2%	9.8%	7.7%	0.7%	0.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	24.2%	9.8%	7.7%	0.7%	0.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	24.2%	9.8%	7.7%	0.7%	0.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	24.2%	9.8%	7.7%	0.7%	0.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00	13.6%	10.5%	7.7%	0.6%	0.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	13.6%	9.3%	7.7%	0.6%	0.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	13.6%	9.3%	7.7%	0.6%	0.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	13.6%	9.3%	10.1%	0.6%	0.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	13.6%	9.3%	10.1%	0.6%	0.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	13.6%	9.3%	10.1%	0.6%	0.3%
2026-10-18T19:28:01+00:00	9.1%	9.3%	10.1%	5.8%	2.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	9.1%	9.3%	10.1%	5.8%	2.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	9.1%	9.3%	10.1%	5.8%	2.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	9.1%	9.3%	10.1%	5.8%	2.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	9.1%	9.3%	10.1%	5.8%	2.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	9.1%	9.3%	4.5%	5.8%	2.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	9.1%	9.3%	4.5%	5.8%	2.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	9.1%	9.3%	4.5%	5.8%	2.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	5.1%	9.3%	4.5%	5.8%	2.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	5.1%	9.3%	4.5%	5.8%	2.4%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	5.1%	9.3%	4.5%	5.8%	2.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	5.1%	9.3%	4.5%	5.8%	2.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	5.1%	9.3%	4.5%	5.8%	2.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	5.1%	9.3%	2.7%	5.8%	2.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	5.1%	9.3%	2.7%	5.8%	2.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	5.1%	9.3%	2.7%	5.8%	2.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:51+00:00	23.8%	9.3%	2.7%	0.6%	2.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	23.8%	9.3%	2.7%	0.6%	2.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	23.8%	9.3%	2.7%	0.6%	2.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	23.8%	9.3%	2.7%	0.6%	2.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00	23.8%	9.3%	2.7%	0.6%	2.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00	23.8%	3.4%	13.6%	0.6%	2.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	23.8%	3.4%	13.6%	0.6%	2.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	23.8%	3.4%	13.6%	0.6%	2.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:05+00:00	26.9%	3.4%	13.6%	0.6%	2.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	26.8%	3.4%	13.6%	0.6%	2.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	26.8%	3.5%	13.6%	0.6%	2.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	26.8%	3.5%	13.6%	0.6%	2.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	26.8%	3.5%	13.6%	0.6%	2.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	26.8%	3.5%	8.8%	0.6%	2.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	26.8%	3.5%	8.8%	0.6%	2.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	26.8%	3.5%	8.8%	0.6%	2.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	27%	67.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	68.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	71.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	74.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	3%	71.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	74.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 64°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261021-TMAX-LE64
Opened Oct 17 · 19:56 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗