KSMF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

67%

55%

42%

13%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 54.5¢Risks 54.55u

ICONNO 45.5¢Risks 45.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.45u · ICON −45.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	96.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	95.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	96.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	94.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	93.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	—	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	80.2%	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	86.7%	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	1.2%	71.2%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	78.6%	52.1%	7.4%	—	72.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	41.3%	86.5%	88.3%	—	76.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	52.3%	59.1%	22.2%	—	77.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	6.9%	16.9%	47.6%	—	77.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	54.9%	—	—	79.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	11.2%	20.1%	18.4%	—	78.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	4.7%	39.0%	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	74.5%	32.2%	10.1%	—	66.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	26.4%	9.6%	—	—	58.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	70.3%	17.8%	28.9%	—	48.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	94.1%	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	14.2%	30.4%	22.5%	—	63.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	51.0%	29.1%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	86.6%	15.7%	1.8%	—	71.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	77.2%	4.5%	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	14.9%	2.8%	9.9%	4.0%	72.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	14.8%	0.5%	—	73.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	96%	77.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	73.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	71.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	69.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	66.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗