KSMF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

67%

55%

42%

13%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 54.5¢Risks 54.55u

ICONNO 45.5¢Risks 45.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.45u · ICON −45.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:32:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:34+00:00	96.2%	70.2%	65.1%	55.0%	19.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	96.2%	70.2%	65.1%	55.0%	19.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	96.2%	70.2%	65.1%	55.0%	19.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	96.2%	70.2%	65.1%	55.0%	19.1%
2026-10-16T04:25:08+00:00	89.9%	65.5%	69.6%	66.9%	82.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	89.9%	65.5%	68.9%	66.9%	82.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	89.9%	65.5%	68.9%	66.9%	82.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	89.9%	65.5%	68.9%	66.9%	82.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	82.8%	65.5%	68.9%	66.9%	63.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	82.8%	65.5%	68.9%	66.9%	63.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	82.8%	65.5%	68.9%	66.9%	63.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	82.8%	65.5%	68.9%	66.9%	63.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	82.8%	65.5%	68.9%	66.9%	63.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	82.8%	73.9%	77.3%	66.9%	63.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	82.8%	73.9%	77.3%	66.9%	63.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	82.8%	73.9%	77.3%	66.9%	63.2%
2026-10-16T13:29:01+00:00	82.3%	73.9%	77.3%	80.2%	63.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	82.2%	73.9%	77.3%	80.2%	63.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:49+00:00	82.2%	76.1%	77.3%	80.2%	63.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	82.2%	76.2%	77.3%	80.2%	63.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	82.2%	76.2%	77.3%	80.2%	63.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	82.2%	76.2%	66.6%	80.2%	63.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	82.2%	76.2%	66.6%	80.2%	63.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	82.2%	76.2%	66.6%	80.2%	63.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	77.6%	76.2%	66.6%	80.2%	71.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	77.6%	76.2%	66.6%	80.2%	71.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	77.6%	76.2%	66.6%	80.2%	71.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	77.6%	76.2%	66.6%	80.2%	71.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	77.6%	76.2%	66.6%	77.1%	71.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	77.6%	76.2%	61.0%	77.1%	71.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	77.6%	76.2%	61.0%	77.1%	71.3%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	77.6%	76.2%	61.0%	77.1%	71.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	69.8%	76.2%	61.0%	77.1%	71.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	69.8%	76.2%	61.0%	77.1%	71.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	69.8%	76.2%	61.0%	77.1%	71.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	69.8%	76.2%	61.0%	77.1%	71.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	24.6%	80.0%	64.2%	71.0%	22.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	24.6%	80.0%	64.2%	71.0%	22.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	24.6%	80.0%	57.7%	71.0%	22.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	24.6%	80.0%	57.7%	71.0%	22.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	24.6%	80.0%	57.7%	71.0%	22.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	24.6%	80.0%	57.7%	71.0%	22.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	31.4%	80.0%	57.7%	90.5%	30.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	31.4%	80.0%	57.7%	90.5%	30.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	31.4%	80.0%	57.7%	90.5%	30.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	31.4%	80.0%	57.7%	90.5%	30.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	31.4%	80.0%	47.1%	90.5%	30.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	31.4%	80.0%	47.1%	90.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	31.4%	80.0%	47.1%	90.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	31.4%	80.0%	47.1%	90.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	32.1%	80.0%	47.1%	90.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	32.1%	80.0%	47.1%	90.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	32.1%	80.0%	47.1%	90.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:52+00:00	32.1%	80.0%	47.1%	90.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	32.1%	80.0%	44.2%	90.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	32.1%	80.0%	44.2%	90.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	32.1%	80.0%	44.2%	90.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	32.1%	80.0%	44.2%	90.5%	30.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:00	33.9%	80.0%	44.2%	84.1%	83.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	33.9%	80.0%	44.2%	84.1%	83.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	33.9%	80.0%	44.2%	84.1%	83.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	33.9%	80.0%	44.2%	84.1%	83.2%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	33.9%	70.8%	40.5%	84.1%	83.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	33.9%	70.8%	40.5%	84.1%	83.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	33.9%	70.8%	40.5%	84.1%	83.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	33.9%	70.8%	40.5%	84.1%	83.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	39.7%	70.6%	40.5%	84.1%	83.2%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00	39.7%	70.6%	40.5%	84.1%	83.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	39.7%	71.2%	40.5%	84.1%	83.2%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	39.7%	71.2%	40.5%	84.1%	83.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	39.7%	71.2%	34.4%	84.1%	83.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	39.7%	71.2%	34.4%	84.1%	83.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	39.7%	71.2%	34.4%	84.1%	83.2%
2026-10-18T19:28:01+00:00	25.7%	71.2%	34.4%	72.6%	79.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	25.7%	71.2%	34.4%	72.6%	79.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	25.7%	71.2%	34.4%	72.6%	79.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	25.7%	71.2%	34.4%	72.6%	79.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	25.7%	71.2%	34.4%	72.6%	79.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	25.7%	71.2%	35.4%	72.6%	79.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	25.7%	71.2%	35.4%	72.6%	79.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	25.7%	71.2%	35.4%	72.6%	79.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	32.4%	71.2%	35.4%	72.6%	79.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	32.4%	71.2%	35.4%	72.6%	79.4%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	32.4%	71.2%	35.4%	72.6%	79.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	32.4%	71.2%	35.4%	72.6%	79.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	32.4%	71.2%	35.4%	72.6%	79.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	32.4%	71.2%	32.4%	72.6%	79.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	32.4%	71.2%	32.4%	72.6%	79.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	32.4%	71.2%	32.4%	72.6%	79.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:51+00:00	38.9%	71.2%	32.4%	96.9%	17.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	38.9%	71.2%	32.4%	96.9%	17.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	38.9%	71.2%	32.4%	96.9%	17.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	38.9%	71.2%	32.4%	96.9%	17.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00	38.9%	71.2%	32.4%	96.9%	17.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00	38.9%	70.3%	38.3%	96.9%	17.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	38.9%	70.3%	38.3%	96.9%	17.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	38.9%	70.3%	38.3%	96.9%	17.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:05+00:00	38.9%	70.3%	38.3%	96.9%	17.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	38.9%	70.3%	38.3%	96.9%	17.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	38.9%	69.6%	38.3%	96.9%	17.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	38.9%	69.6%	38.3%	96.9%	17.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	38.9%	69.6%	38.3%	96.9%	17.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	38.9%	69.6%	50.0%	96.9%	17.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	38.9%	69.6%	50.0%	96.9%	17.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	38.9%	69.6%	50.0%	96.9%	17.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	54.7%	69.6%	50.0%	48.2%	89.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	54.7%	69.6%	50.0%	48.2%	89.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	54.7%	69.6%	50.0%	48.2%	89.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	54.7%	69.6%	50.0%	48.2%	89.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	54.7%	69.6%	50.0%	48.2%	89.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	54.7%	69.6%	48.8%	48.2%	89.5%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	54.7%	69.6%	48.8%	48.2%	89.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	54.7%	69.6%	48.8%	48.2%	89.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	44.4%	69.6%	48.8%	48.2%	89.5%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	44.4%	69.6%	48.8%	48.2%	89.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	44.4%	69.6%	48.8%	48.2%	89.5%
2026-10-20T04:05:44+00:00	44.4%	69.6%	48.8%	48.2%	89.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	44.4%	69.6%	48.8%	48.2%	89.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	44.4%	69.6%	36.0%	48.2%	89.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	44.4%	69.6%	36.0%	48.2%	89.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	44.4%	69.6%	36.0%	48.2%	89.5%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	54.9%	69.6%	36.0%	48.2%	12.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	54.9%	69.6%	36.0%	48.2%	12.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	54.9%	69.6%	36.0%	48.2%	12.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	54.9%	69.6%	36.0%	48.2%	12.5%
2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00	54.9%	71.1%	42.3%	96.0%	12.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	54.9%	71.1%	42.3%	96.0%	12.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	54.9%	71.1%	42.3%	96.0%	12.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	54.9%	71.1%	42.3%	96.0%	12.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	54.9%	71.2%	42.3%	96.0%	13.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	54.9%	71.2%	42.3%	96.0%	13.1%
2026-10-20T15:32:45+00:00	54.9%	67.2%	42.3%	96.0%	13.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	96%	77.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	73.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	71.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	69.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	66.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗