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KSMF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≤ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
29%
EPS
6%
AIFS
5%
WN2
4%
HRES
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 14.4¢Risks 14.40u
VS
HRESNO 85.6¢Risks 85.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.60u · HRES −85.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 95.7% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.9% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 61.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 48.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 65.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 23.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 34.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 27.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 63.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 54.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 60.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 65.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 35.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 48.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 20.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 70.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 36.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 81.7% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 54.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 41.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 86.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-07 12:0010-14 00:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0095.7%————41.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0027.9%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:007.1%————0.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:002.2%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:003.8%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.6%————1.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:002.7%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0015.2%————0.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0025.7%————0.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.5%————1.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0014.9%————0.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:007.5%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0013.3%————2.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:003.0%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0014.1%————5.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0013.4%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:007.9%————11.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:007.4%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:006.9%————7.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:009.7%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:005.0%————5.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:001.1%—4.7%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:001.7%—3.6%——6.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:002.5%—8.9%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:004.3%—1.8%——3.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0011.6%—9.4%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:002.0%89.2%5.8%——5.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:005.2%—4.7%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0020.4%3.2%13.4%65.1%—5.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:004.9%—11.8%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0010.3%18.9%1.4%1.1%—3.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0010.1%—41.8%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0013.4%11.4%8.4%35.1%—2.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0018.9%—14.5%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0059.5%61.0%40.5%12.7%—2.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0066.6%—8.8%——2.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0058.3%48.3%33.8%36.1%—2.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0057.6%65.0%15.7%——3.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0053.5%2.4%19.6%48.2%—4.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0046.4%23.5%48.2%——5.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0064.4%2.8%32.2%20.3%—9.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0055.7%0.1%63.0%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0047.1%34.8%17.1%24.0%—3.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0046.0%6.3%17.0%——86.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0028.5%0.4%29.4%70.6%—1.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0039.5%1.0%54.2%——1.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0026.4%27.3%60.8%36.1%54.4%1.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0019.0%—25.8%81.7%—1.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON29%66.5°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend12%71.0°F5.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble6%73.9°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single5%71.0°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%69.9°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast3%71.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES<1%77.7°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 64°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261022-TMAX-LE64
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗