KSMF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≤ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

29%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.4¢Risks 14.40u

HRESNO 85.6¢Risks 85.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.60u · HRES −85.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:00	18.6%	5.2%	9.4%	1.4%	1.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	18.6%	5.2%	9.4%	1.4%	1.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	18.6%	5.2%	9.4%	1.4%	1.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	18.6%	5.2%	9.4%	1.4%	1.4%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	18.6%	5.8%	8.6%	1.4%	1.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	18.6%	5.8%	8.6%	1.4%	1.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	18.6%	5.8%	8.6%	1.4%	1.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	18.6%	5.8%	8.6%	1.4%	1.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	14.8%	5.9%	8.6%	1.4%	1.4%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00	14.8%	5.9%	8.6%	1.4%	1.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	14.8%	5.4%	8.6%	1.4%	1.4%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	14.8%	5.4%	8.6%	1.4%	1.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	14.8%	5.4%	11.4%	1.4%	1.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	14.8%	5.4%	11.4%	1.4%	1.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	14.8%	5.4%	11.4%	1.4%	1.4%
2026-10-18T19:28:01+00:00	25.7%	5.4%	11.4%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	25.7%	5.4%	11.4%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	25.7%	5.4%	11.4%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	25.7%	5.4%	11.4%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	25.7%	5.4%	11.4%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	25.7%	5.4%	10.9%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	25.7%	5.4%	10.9%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	25.7%	5.4%	10.9%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	19.8%	5.4%	10.9%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	19.8%	5.4%	10.9%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	19.8%	5.4%	10.9%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	19.8%	5.4%	10.9%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	19.8%	5.4%	10.9%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	19.8%	5.4%	12.4%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	19.8%	5.4%	12.4%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	19.8%	5.4%	12.4%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:51+00:00	13.0%	5.4%	12.4%	0.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	13.0%	5.4%	12.4%	0.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	13.0%	5.4%	12.4%	0.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	13.0%	5.4%	12.4%	0.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00	13.0%	5.4%	12.4%	0.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00	13.0%	4.7%	6.9%	0.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	13.0%	4.7%	6.9%	0.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	13.0%	4.7%	6.9%	0.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:05+00:00	13.0%	4.7%	6.9%	0.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	13.0%	4.7%	6.8%	0.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	13.0%	4.9%	6.8%	0.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	13.0%	4.9%	6.8%	0.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	13.0%	4.9%	6.8%	0.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	13.0%	4.9%	3.7%	0.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	13.0%	4.9%	3.7%	0.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	13.0%	4.9%	3.7%	0.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	6.4%	4.9%	3.7%	9.7%	0.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	6.4%	4.9%	3.7%	9.7%	0.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	6.4%	4.9%	3.7%	9.7%	0.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	6.4%	4.9%	3.7%	9.7%	0.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	6.4%	4.9%	3.7%	9.7%	0.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	6.4%	4.9%	4.0%	9.7%	0.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	6.4%	4.9%	4.0%	9.7%	0.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	6.4%	4.9%	4.0%	9.7%	0.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	10.2%	4.9%	4.0%	9.7%	0.3%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	10.2%	4.9%	4.0%	9.7%	0.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	10.2%	4.9%	4.0%	9.7%	0.3%
2026-10-20T04:05:44+00:00	10.2%	4.9%	4.0%	9.7%	0.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	10.2%	4.9%	4.0%	9.7%	0.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	10.2%	4.9%	7.7%	9.7%	0.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	10.2%	4.9%	7.7%	9.7%	0.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	10.2%	4.9%	7.7%	9.7%	0.3%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	5.4%	4.9%	7.7%	9.7%	29.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	5.4%	4.9%	7.7%	9.7%	29.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	5.4%	4.9%	7.7%	9.7%	29.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	5.4%	4.9%	7.7%	9.7%	29.7%
2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00	5.4%	6.2%	4.1%	0.1%	29.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	5.4%	6.2%	4.1%	0.1%	29.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	5.4%	6.2%	4.1%	0.1%	29.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	5.4%	6.2%	4.1%	0.1%	29.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	5.4%	6.1%	4.0%	0.1%	28.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	29%	66.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	71.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	73.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	71.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	69.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	77.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 64°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261022-TMAX-LE64
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗