KSMF / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

84%

68%

56%

41%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 64.7¢Risks 64.70u

ICONNO 35.3¢Risks 35.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +35.30u · ICON −35.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	21.4%	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	71.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	80.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	0.6%	10.2%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	14.9%	47.9%	0.2%	—	74.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	31.7%	46.4%	9.3%	—	63.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	28.9%	69.1%	16.0%	—	63.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	66.6%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	80.5%	78.8%	26.8%	—	52.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	68.8%	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	98.3%	70.7%	83.8%	—	45.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	8.5%	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	96.4%	82.2%	60.4%	—	57.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	91.5%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	73.4%	67.0%	52.8%	—	70.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	87.3%	59.4%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	34.8%	62.4%	28.7%	10.7%	76.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	64.7%	—	—	84.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	88%	77.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	76.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	74.9°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	74.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	41%	71.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗