KSMF / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

84%

68%

56%

41%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 64.7¢Risks 64.70u

ICONNO 35.3¢Risks 35.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +35.30u · ICON −35.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:37+00:00	79.3%	64.0%	59.3%	90.3%	44.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	79.3%	64.0%	57.0%	90.3%	44.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	79.3%	64.0%	57.0%	90.3%	44.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	79.3%	64.0%	57.0%	90.3%	44.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:09+00:00	62.3%	64.0%	57.0%	84.5%	56.1%
2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00	62.3%	64.0%	57.0%	84.5%	56.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	62.3%	64.0%	57.0%	84.5%	56.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	62.3%	64.0%	57.0%	84.5%	56.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	62.3%	64.0%	57.0%	84.5%	56.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	62.3%	63.6%	56.0%	84.5%	56.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	62.3%	63.6%	56.0%	84.5%	56.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	62.3%	63.6%	56.0%	84.5%	56.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	69.1%	63.6%	56.0%	84.2%	56.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	69.1%	63.5%	55.9%	84.5%	56.1%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	69.1%	64.4%	55.9%	84.5%	56.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	69.1%	64.4%	55.9%	84.5%	56.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	69.1%	64.4%	58.5%	84.5%	56.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	69.1%	64.4%	58.5%	84.5%	56.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	69.1%	64.4%	58.5%	84.5%	56.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	69.1%	64.4%	58.5%	84.5%	56.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	64.4%	64.4%	58.5%	80.2%	54.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	64.4%	64.4%	58.5%	80.2%	54.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	64.4%	64.4%	58.5%	80.2%	54.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	64.4%	64.4%	58.5%	80.2%	54.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	64.4%	64.4%	49.1%	80.2%	54.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	64.4%	64.4%	49.1%	80.2%	54.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	64.4%	64.4%	49.1%	80.2%	54.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	64.4%	64.4%	49.1%	80.2%	54.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	65.8%	64.4%	49.1%	80.2%	54.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	65.8%	64.4%	49.1%	80.2%	54.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	65.8%	64.4%	49.1%	80.2%	54.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:52+00:00	65.8%	64.4%	49.1%	80.2%	54.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	65.8%	64.4%	50.9%	80.2%	54.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	65.8%	64.4%	50.9%	80.2%	54.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	65.8%	64.4%	50.9%	80.2%	54.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	65.8%	64.4%	50.9%	80.2%	54.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:54+00:00	68.6%	64.4%	50.9%	75.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	68.6%	64.4%	50.9%	75.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	68.6%	64.4%	50.9%	75.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	68.6%	64.4%	50.9%	75.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	68.6%	61.9%	55.8%	75.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	68.6%	61.9%	55.8%	75.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	68.6%	61.9%	55.8%	75.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	68.6%	61.9%	55.8%	75.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	71.4%	61.8%	55.8%	75.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00	71.4%	61.8%	55.8%	75.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	71.4%	62.0%	55.8%	75.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	71.4%	62.0%	55.8%	75.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	71.4%	62.0%	51.0%	75.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	71.4%	62.0%	51.0%	75.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	71.4%	62.0%	51.0%	75.5%	87.4%
2026-10-18T19:28:01+00:00	72.8%	62.0%	51.0%	71.6%	98.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	72.8%	62.0%	51.0%	71.6%	98.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	72.8%	62.0%	51.0%	71.6%	98.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	72.8%	62.0%	51.0%	71.6%	98.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	72.8%	62.0%	51.0%	71.6%	98.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	72.8%	62.0%	52.9%	71.6%	98.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	72.8%	62.0%	52.9%	71.6%	98.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	72.8%	62.0%	52.9%	71.6%	98.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	74.1%	62.0%	52.9%	71.6%	98.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	74.1%	62.0%	52.9%	71.6%	98.2%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	74.1%	62.0%	52.9%	71.6%	98.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	74.1%	62.0%	52.9%	71.6%	98.2%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	74.1%	62.0%	52.9%	71.6%	98.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	74.1%	62.0%	58.7%	71.6%	98.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	74.1%	62.0%	58.7%	71.6%	98.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	74.1%	62.0%	58.7%	71.6%	98.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:51+00:00	74.3%	62.0%	58.7%	78.2%	97.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	74.3%	62.0%	58.7%	78.2%	97.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	74.3%	62.0%	58.7%	78.2%	97.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	74.3%	62.0%	58.7%	78.2%	97.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00	74.3%	62.0%	58.7%	78.2%	97.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00	74.3%	60.8%	58.5%	78.2%	97.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	74.3%	60.8%	58.5%	78.2%	97.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	74.3%	60.8%	58.5%	78.2%	97.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:05+00:00	77.7%	60.8%	58.5%	78.2%	97.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	77.8%	60.8%	58.5%	78.2%	97.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	77.8%	60.0%	58.5%	78.2%	97.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	77.8%	60.0%	58.5%	78.2%	97.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	77.8%	60.0%	58.5%	78.2%	97.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	77.8%	60.0%	64.7%	78.2%	97.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	77.8%	60.0%	64.7%	78.2%	97.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	77.8%	60.0%	64.7%	78.2%	97.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	80.9%	60.0%	64.7%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	80.9%	60.0%	64.7%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	80.9%	60.0%	64.7%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	80.9%	60.0%	64.7%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	80.9%	60.0%	64.7%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	80.9%	60.0%	59.6%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	80.9%	60.0%	59.6%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	80.9%	60.0%	59.6%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	79.7%	60.0%	59.6%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	79.7%	60.0%	59.6%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	79.7%	60.0%	59.6%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-10-20T04:05:44+00:00	79.7%	60.0%	59.6%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	79.7%	60.0%	59.6%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	79.7%	60.0%	56.4%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	79.7%	60.0%	56.4%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	79.7%	60.0%	56.4%	66.3%	81.7%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	83.8%	60.0%	56.4%	66.3%	41.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	83.8%	60.0%	56.4%	66.3%	41.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	83.8%	60.0%	56.4%	66.3%	41.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	83.8%	60.0%	56.4%	66.3%	41.1%
2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00	83.8%	67.6%	55.9%	88.3%	41.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	83.8%	67.6%	55.9%	88.3%	41.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	83.8%	67.6%	55.9%	88.3%	41.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	83.8%	67.6%	55.9%	88.3%	41.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	83.8%	67.6%	55.9%	88.3%	41.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	83.8%	67.6%	55.9%	88.3%	41.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	88%	77.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	76.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	74.9°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	74.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	41%	71.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗