KSMF / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

77%

74%

69%

60%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 69.0¢Risks 34.52u

ICONNO 30.9¢Risks 15.47u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +15.47u · ICON −15.47u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	—	—	—	69.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	86.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	68.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	57.8%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	0.7%	63.9%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	7.2%	61.8%	0.9%	—	51.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	70.3%	85.6%	56.6%	—	43.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	84.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	77.8%	81.1%	73.6%	—	38.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	76.4%	89.2%	33.7%	—	57.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	73.5%	74.2%	40.1%	—	66.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	2.2%	67.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	45.6%	68.6%	23.4%	16.7%	67.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	70.6%	—	—	69.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	78%	76.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	75.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	75.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	74.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	73.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗