KSMF / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

77%

74%

69%

60%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 69.0¢Risks 34.52u

ICONNO 30.9¢Risks 15.47u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +15.47u · ICON −15.47u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	77.0%	57.5%	50.9%	73.3%	85.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	77.0%	57.5%	56.8%	73.3%	85.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	77.0%	57.5%	56.8%	73.3%	85.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	77.0%	57.5%	56.8%	73.3%	85.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:51+00:00	70.0%	57.5%	56.8%	77.1%	84.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	70.0%	57.5%	56.8%	77.1%	84.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	70.0%	57.5%	56.8%	77.1%	84.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	70.0%	57.5%	56.8%	77.1%	84.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00	70.0%	57.5%	56.8%	77.1%	84.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00	70.0%	62.1%	55.8%	77.1%	84.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	70.0%	62.1%	55.8%	77.1%	84.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	70.0%	62.1%	55.8%	77.1%	84.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:05+00:00	74.1%	62.1%	55.8%	77.1%	84.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	74.1%	62.1%	55.8%	77.2%	84.9%
2026-10-20T04:05:44+00:00	86.7%	61.4%	60.6%	69.8%	82.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	86.7%	61.4%	60.6%	69.8%	82.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	86.7%	61.4%	65.1%	69.8%	82.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	86.7%	61.4%	65.1%	69.8%	82.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	86.7%	61.4%	65.1%	69.8%	82.5%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	77.1%	61.4%	65.1%	69.8%	59.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	77.1%	61.4%	65.1%	69.8%	59.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	77.1%	61.4%	65.1%	69.8%	59.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	77.1%	61.4%	65.1%	69.8%	59.7%
2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00	77.1%	74.0%	68.6%	78.2%	59.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	77.1%	74.0%	68.6%	78.2%	59.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	77.1%	74.0%	68.6%	78.2%	59.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	77.1%	74.0%	68.6%	78.2%	59.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	77.2%	74.0%	68.6%	78.3%	59.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	77.2%	74.0%	68.6%	78.3%	59.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	78%	76.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	75.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	75.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	74.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	73.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗