KSMF / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

93%

91%

89%

76%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 85.7¢Risks 42.83u

EPSNO 14.3¢Risks 7.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +7.17u · EPS −7.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	92.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	—	—	80.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	9.3%	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	46.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	78.3%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	0.6%	95.8%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	96.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	50.7%	92.8%	5.1%	—	44.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	89.4%	98.9%	72.2%	—	67.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	91.0%	96.7%	62.7%	—	82.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	74.5%	88.1%	74.5%	59.5%	91.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	91.2%	—	—	93.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	79.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	93%	81.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	91%	79.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	76.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	74.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	71.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗