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KSMF / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
95%
ICON
93%
HRES
91%
WN2
89%
EPS
76%
Consensus
86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 85.7¢Risks 42.83u
VS
EPSNO 14.3¢Risks 7.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +7.17u · EPS −7.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00AIFS Single: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.9% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.9% · 2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.9% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.9% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.9% · 2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.9% · 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.7% · 2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.7% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.7% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.8% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.8% · 2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.8% · 2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.8% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.9% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00IFS HRES: 87.9% · 2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00IFS HRES: 87.9% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00IFS HRES: 87.9% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00IFS HRES: 87.9% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00IFS HRES: 87.9% · 2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00IFS HRES: 87.9% · 2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00ICON: 92.8% · 2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00ICON: 92.8% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00ICON: 92.8% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00ICON: 92.8% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00ICON: 92.8% · 2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00ICON: 92.8% · 2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00ICON: 93.1% · 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:0010-19 15:1310-19 21:1510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:0095.0%75.9%74.7%87.9%92.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:0095.0%75.9%74.7%87.9%92.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:0095.0%75.9%74.7%87.9%92.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:0095.0%75.9%84.8%87.9%92.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:0095.0%75.9%84.8%87.9%92.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:0095.0%75.9%84.8%87.9%92.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:0095.0%75.9%84.8%90.9%93.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:0095.0%75.9%84.8%90.9%93.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:0095.0%75.9%84.8%90.9%93.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:0095.0%75.9%84.8%90.9%93.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:0095.0%75.9%84.8%90.9%93.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:0095.0%75.9%88.9%90.9%93.1%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:0095.0%75.9%88.9%90.9%93.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:0095.0%75.9%88.9%90.9%93.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:0095.4%75.9%88.9%90.9%93.1%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:0095.4%75.9%88.9%90.9%93.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:0095.4%75.9%88.9%90.9%93.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single95%79.6°F5.4°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
ICON93%81.1°F7.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS HRES91%79.3°F6.6°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 289%76.2°F4.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble76%74.0°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%71.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
National Blend53%71.0°F6.7°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗