KSMF / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

90%

86%

69%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 83.2¢Risks 83.20u

EPSNO 16.8¢Risks 16.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +16.80u · EPS −16.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	86.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	73.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	—	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	48.8%	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	91.7%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	86.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	14.1%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	97.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	83.3%	2.6%	97.6%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	86.3%	91.3%	2.1%	—	74.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	93.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	86.5%	95.1%	86.5%	37.1%	89.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	96.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	98%	82.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	78.6°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	75.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	86%	80.3°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	73.5°F	8.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	70.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261026-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 70°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗