KSMF / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

90%

86%

69%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 83.2¢Risks 83.20u

EPSNO 16.8¢Risks 16.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +16.80u · EPS −16.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00	95.1%	69.4%	67.4%	85.1%	24.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	95.1%	69.4%	67.4%	85.1%	24.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	95.1%	69.4%	67.4%	85.1%	24.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:05+00:00	95.4%	69.4%	67.4%	85.1%	24.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	95.4%	69.4%	67.4%	85.1%	24.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:57+00:00	95.4%	68.9%	67.4%	85.1%	24.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	95.4%	68.9%	67.4%	85.1%	24.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	95.4%	68.9%	67.4%	85.1%	24.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	95.4%	68.9%	81.1%	85.1%	24.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	95.4%	68.9%	81.1%	85.1%	24.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	95.4%	68.9%	81.1%	85.1%	24.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	95.9%	68.9%	81.1%	97.5%	85.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	95.9%	68.9%	81.1%	97.5%	85.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	95.9%	68.9%	81.1%	97.5%	85.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	95.9%	68.9%	81.1%	97.5%	85.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	95.9%	68.9%	81.1%	97.5%	85.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	95.9%	68.9%	89.5%	97.5%	85.9%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	95.9%	68.9%	89.5%	97.5%	85.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	95.9%	68.9%	89.5%	97.5%	85.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	94.4%	68.9%	89.5%	97.5%	85.9%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	94.4%	68.9%	89.5%	97.5%	85.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	94.4%	68.9%	89.5%	97.5%	85.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	98%	82.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	78.6°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	75.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	86%	80.3°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	73.5°F	8.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	70.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261026-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 70°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗