KSMF / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

18%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 24.9¢Risks 24.90u

ICONNO 75.1¢Risks 75.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +75.10u · ICON −75.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	25.9%	—	1.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	10.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	48.1%	—	3.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	14.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	34.2%	—	5.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	22.7%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.0%	2.0%	0.2%	12.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	36.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	48%	82.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	75.8°F	7.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	76.1°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	74.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	2%	62.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	72.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261027-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗