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KSMF / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
49%
HRES
48%
EPS
18%
WN2
7%
ICON
2%
Consensus
9%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 25.8¢Risks 25.80u
VS
ICONNO 74.2¢Risks 74.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.20u · ICON −74.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:21+00:00AIFS Single: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00AIFS Single: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00AIFS Single: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00AIFS Single: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T15:32:47+00:00AIFS Single: 13.2% · 2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T15:32:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-10-20T15:32:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.8% · 2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.0% · 2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.0% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.0% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:21+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T15:32:47+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T10:54:21+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T15:32:47+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 14:4610-20 18:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:21+00:0013.2%19.6%5.8%47.5%2.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:0013.2%19.6%5.8%47.5%2.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0013.2%19.6%5.8%47.5%2.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0013.2%19.6%5.8%47.5%2.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:0013.2%19.6%5.8%47.5%2.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:0013.2%19.6%5.8%47.5%2.3%
2026-10-20T15:32:47+00:0013.2%18.4%5.8%47.5%2.3%
2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:0013.2%18.4%5.8%47.5%2.3%
2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:0049.3%18.4%7.0%47.5%2.3%
2026-10-20T17:48:41+00:0049.3%18.4%7.0%47.5%2.3%
2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:0049.3%18.4%7.0%47.5%2.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single49%82.4°F5.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES48%82.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble18%75.8°F7.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 27%75.0°F5.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON2%62.5°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend1%72.0°F4.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261027-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗