KSTL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

21%

14%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 13.1¢Risks 13.10u

ICONNO 86.9¢Risks 86.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +86.90u · ICON −86.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	14.9%	25.2%	3.1%	—	29.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	58.7%	49.3%	28.5%	—	37.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	45.4%	59.1%	51.5%	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	62.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	30.9%	43.6%	35.9%	—	24.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	62.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	30.0%	52.5%	21.9%	—	15.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	14.2%	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	16.7%	66.2%	10.1%	—	7.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	18.4%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	9.8%	57.3%	7.3%	—	4.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	7.7%	52.8%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	9.0%	46.1%	6.5%	—	5.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	10.0%	51.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	7.1%	41.8%	6.4%	—	5.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	4.7%	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	5.3%	25.5%	5.3%	—	5.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	4.5%	19.0%	0.0%	—	4.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	3.8%	28.0%	5.4%	—	4.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	3.7%	28.3%	4.3%	—	4.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	2.5%	36.5%	5.2%	3.0%	2.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.6%	37.3%	3.7%	—	1.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.4%	39.4%	2.8%	3.2%	1.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	2.1%	36.3%	3.0%	—	1.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	3.7%	38.6%	4.4%	5.9%	1.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.7%	33.8%	2.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.8%	33.1%	1.0%	2.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.3%	24.1%	2.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.3505
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3457
IFS Ensemble	25%	66.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0620
AIFS Single	21%	65.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0433
WeatherNext 2	14%	65.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0204
IFS HRES	6%	62.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0040
ICON	1%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗