WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KSTL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
25%
AIFS
21%
WN2
14%
HRES
6%
ICON
1%
Consensus
20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 13.1¢Risks 13.10u
VS
ICONNO 86.9¢Risks 86.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +86.90u · ICON −86.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:15+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T04:14:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.0% · 2026-10-18T04:14:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00IFS HRES: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T04:14:15+00:00IFS HRES: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00IFS HRES: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00IFS HRES: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00IFS HRES: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T04:14:15+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 05:4510-18 07:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:15+00:0020.8%24.9%7.0%6.3%1.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:0020.8%24.9%14.3%6.3%1.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:0020.8%24.9%14.3%6.3%1.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:0020.8%24.9%14.3%6.3%1.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:0020.8%24.9%14.3%6.3%1.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast59%69.0°F2.1°F2026-10-18 03:000.3505
National Blend59%69.0°F2.2°F2026-10-18 00:000.3457
IFS Ensemble25%66.1°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:000.0620
AIFS Single21%65.3°F3.9°F2026-10-17 18:000.0433
WeatherNext 214%65.4°F2.9°F2026-10-17 18:000.0204
IFS HRES6%62.8°F3.7°F2026-10-17 12:000.0040
ICON1%60.7°F3.5°F2026-10-17 12:000.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗