KSTL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

56%

32%

17%

10%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.4¢Risks 36.35u

ICONNO 63.7¢Risks 63.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.65u · ICON −63.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	37.8%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	0.8%	80.6%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	74.8%	75.4%	2.2%	—	42.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	62.9%	72.8%	48.5%	—	39.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	17.4%	4.8%	40.2%	—	38.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	21.2%	52.4%	12.3%	—	17.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	24.5%	58.3%	7.4%	—	12.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	8.5%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	12.7%	66.2%	9.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	28.7%	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	15.4%	59.1%	10.6%	—	17.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	15.4%	59.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	13.6%	51.0%	16.5%	—	15.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	6.6%	42.0%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	7.8%	51.0%	11.3%	—	18.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	15.0%	55.3%	—	—	18.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	10.4%	60.8%	9.0%	0.0%	13.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.5%	7.5%	55.6%	0.0%	—	10.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	10.0%	65.9%	5.1%	12.7%	7.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	18.3%	64.1%	5.8%	—	6.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	19.1%	66.9%	10.0%	—	9.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	15.0%	68.7%	6.0%	—	4.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	13.4%	71.6%	5.3%	12.0%	5.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	24.2%	61.0%	8.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	38.6%	64.2%	9.5%	30.5%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	71.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	70.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	68.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	66.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	10%	65.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗