KSTL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

56%

32%

17%

10%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.4¢Risks 36.35u

ICONNO 63.7¢Risks 63.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.65u · ICON −63.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:24+00:00	59.5%	44.9%	46.8%	34.5%	28.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	59.5%	44.9%	44.7%	34.5%	28.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	59.5%	44.9%	44.7%	34.5%	28.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	59.5%	44.9%	44.7%	34.5%	28.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	60.1%	44.9%	44.7%	34.5%	16.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	60.1%	44.9%	44.7%	34.5%	16.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	60.1%	44.9%	44.7%	34.5%	16.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	60.1%	44.9%	44.7%	34.5%	16.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	60.1%	44.9%	44.7%	34.5%	16.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:21+00:00	60.1%	47.6%	38.3%	34.5%	16.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	60.1%	47.6%	38.3%	34.5%	16.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	60.1%	47.6%	38.3%	34.5%	16.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:42+00:00	61.0%	47.6%	38.3%	22.3%	16.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	61.0%	47.6%	38.3%	22.3%	16.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	61.0%	50.0%	38.3%	22.3%	16.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	61.0%	50.0%	38.3%	22.3%	16.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	61.0%	50.0%	38.3%	22.3%	16.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	61.0%	50.0%	42.9%	22.3%	16.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	61.0%	50.0%	42.9%	22.3%	16.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	61.0%	50.0%	42.9%	22.3%	16.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	66.3%	50.0%	42.9%	22.3%	11.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:36+00:00	66.3%	50.0%	42.9%	22.3%	11.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	66.3%	50.0%	42.9%	22.3%	11.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	66.3%	50.0%	42.9%	22.3%	11.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	66.3%	50.0%	42.9%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	66.3%	50.0%	46.5%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	66.3%	50.0%	46.5%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	66.3%	50.0%	46.5%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	67.1%	50.0%	46.5%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:22+00:00	67.1%	50.0%	46.5%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	67.1%	50.0%	46.5%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:40+00:00	67.1%	50.0%	46.5%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:57+00:00	67.1%	50.0%	46.5%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	67.1%	50.0%	47.6%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	67.1%	50.0%	47.6%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	67.1%	50.0%	47.6%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:38+00:00	67.1%	50.0%	47.6%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	67.1%	50.0%	47.6%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	67.1%	50.0%	47.6%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	67.1%	50.0%	47.6%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	67.1%	50.0%	47.6%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	67.1%	51.2%	41.1%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	67.1%	51.2%	41.1%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	67.1%	51.2%	41.1%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	63.5%	51.2%	41.1%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	63.5%	51.2%	41.1%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:58+00:00	63.5%	37.8%	41.1%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	63.5%	37.8%	41.1%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	63.5%	37.8%	36.1%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	63.5%	37.8%	36.1%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	63.5%	37.8%	36.1%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	63.5%	37.8%	36.1%	21.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	54.9%	37.8%	36.1%	17.7%	9.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	54.9%	37.8%	36.1%	17.7%	9.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	54.9%	37.8%	36.1%	17.7%	9.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	54.9%	37.8%	36.1%	17.7%	9.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	54.9%	37.8%	29.2%	17.7%	9.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	54.9%	37.8%	29.2%	17.7%	9.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	54.9%	37.8%	29.2%	17.7%	9.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	54.9%	37.8%	29.2%	17.7%	9.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	58.8%	37.8%	29.2%	17.7%	9.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	58.8%	37.8%	29.2%	17.7%	9.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	58.8%	37.8%	29.2%	17.7%	9.2%
2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00	62.9%	32.5%	30.3%	16.6%	9.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	62.9%	32.5%	55.5%	16.6%	9.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	62.9%	32.5%	55.5%	16.6%	9.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	62.9%	32.5%	55.5%	16.6%	9.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	71.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	70.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	68.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	66.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	10%	65.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗