KSTL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

83%

49%

48%

47%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 65.5¢Risks 65.55u

ICONNO 34.5¢Risks 34.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.45u · ICON −34.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	37.0%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	53.9%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	0.2%	58.7%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	60.4%	68.9%	1.7%	—	43.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	44.9%	74.0%	18.9%	—	32.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	75.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.2%	46.9%	73.6%	40.2%	—	44.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	24.2%	75.8%	23.0%	—	31.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	68.8%	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	10.8%	66.2%	18.4%	—	24.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	8.5%	73.3%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	14.1%	73.1%	16.7%	—	27.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	14.5%	80.4%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	15.4%	74.1%	7.6%	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	29.2%	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	39.4%	79.0%	15.3%	—	27.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	32.6%	81.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	26.8%	78.8%	11.3%	—	23.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	46.8%	82.4%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	48.9%	84.5%	11.4%	60.8%	33.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	81.0%	0.2%	—	23.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	78.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	77.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	74.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	74.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	47%	74.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗