KSTL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

83%

49%

48%

47%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 65.5¢Risks 65.55u

ICONNO 34.5¢Risks 34.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.45u · ICON −34.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:04:49+00:00	80.1%	39.9%	70.4%	33.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	80.1%	39.9%	70.4%	33.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	80.1%	39.9%	82.2%	33.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	80.1%	39.9%	82.2%	33.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	80.1%	39.9%	82.2%	33.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	84.5%	39.9%	82.2%	33.5%	45.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	84.5%	39.9%	82.2%	33.5%	45.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	84.5%	39.9%	82.2%	33.5%	45.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	84.5%	39.9%	82.2%	33.5%	45.5%
2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00	84.5%	47.8%	82.5%	49.0%	45.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	84.5%	47.8%	82.5%	49.0%	45.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	84.5%	47.8%	82.5%	49.0%	45.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	84.5%	47.8%	82.5%	49.0%	45.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	84.5%	47.8%	82.6%	49.0%	46.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	84.5%	47.8%	82.6%	49.0%	46.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	78.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	77.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	74.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	74.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	47%	74.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗