KSTL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

11%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.8¢Risks 5.40u

EPSNO 89.2¢Risks 44.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.60u · EPS −44.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	1.1%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	0.0%	30.6%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	5.1%	31.1%	0.1%	—	9.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	1.7%	31.7%	3.6%	—	2.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	0.1%	21.6%	0.1%	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	25.9%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.5%	24.2%	0.8%	—	1.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	29.7%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.5%	24.5%	0.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.2%	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	1.5%	22.1%	0.1%	—	0.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.1%	24.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.6%	20.9%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.6%	23.8%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.9%	23.2%	0.2%	5.4%	0.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	17.7%	—	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	76.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	75.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	71.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	4%	69.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	73.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗