KSTL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

11%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.8¢Risks 5.40u

EPSNO 89.2¢Risks 44.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.60u · EPS −44.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:58+00:00	20.8%	2.4%	20.2%	9.6%	13.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	20.8%	2.4%	20.2%	9.6%	13.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	20.8%	2.4%	20.2%	9.6%	13.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	20.8%	2.4%	20.2%	9.6%	13.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	20.8%	2.4%	20.2%	9.6%	13.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	20.8%	2.4%	20.2%	9.6%	13.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	15.5%	2.4%	20.2%	6.3%	4.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	15.5%	2.4%	20.2%	6.3%	4.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	15.5%	2.4%	20.2%	6.3%	4.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	15.5%	2.4%	20.2%	6.3%	4.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	15.5%	2.4%	10.8%	6.3%	4.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	15.5%	2.4%	10.8%	6.3%	4.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	15.5%	2.4%	10.8%	6.3%	4.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	15.5%	2.4%	10.8%	6.3%	4.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	19.2%	2.4%	10.8%	6.3%	4.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	19.2%	2.4%	10.8%	6.3%	4.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	19.2%	2.4%	10.8%	6.3%	4.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	76.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	75.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	71.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	4%	69.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	73.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗