KSTL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

71%

55%

34%

28%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 50.4¢Risks 50.35u

EPSNO 49.6¢Risks 49.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.65u · EPS −49.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	53.6%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	67.6%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	0.0%	10.8%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	29.8%	52.8%	0.7%	—	26.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	29.7%	55.8%	14.8%	—	31.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	30.3%	57.6%	18.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	62.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	57.9%	62.5%	17.4%	33.0%	42.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	52.4%	—	—	31.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	73%	80.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	80.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	55%	78.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	74.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	74.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261025-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗